Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds

2026-08-22 15:00, The City Ground. Half time 0–0. Anton Stach 87'

2026-08-22 15:00
Nottingham Forest
0–1
Leeds
0.7
expected goals
+0.1 to Nottingham Forest
0.6

Leeds won a match that was close on chances, 0.6 to 0.7 expected goals.

12Shots11
0.28Expected goals from open play0.28
0.47From set pieces0.34
0.74Excluding penalties0.62
0.74As the rating counts them0.56
1.4Points the chances deserved1.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Nottingham Forest creates 1.15 and allows 1.26; Leeds creates 1.11 and allows 1.25.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Nottingham Forest win 35 per cent, draw 39, Leeds win 27. Nottingham Forest deserved 1.4 points and took 0; Leeds deserved 1.2 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Nottingham Forest attack this way →← Leeds attack this wayAnton Stach 0': 0.02 expected goalsIgor Jesus 16': 0.04 expected goalsJoe Rodon 19': 0.03 expected goalsJaka Bijol 19': 0.07 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 28': 0.01 expected goalsNikola Milenkovic 32': 0.05 expected goalsOla Aina 35': 0.02 expected goalsNikola Milenkovic 40': 0.06 expected goalsJaka Bijol 45': 0.06 expected goalsBrenden Aaronson 46': 0.02 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 51': 0.13 expected goalsAnton Stach 52': 0.04 expected goalsIgor Jesus 54': 0.12 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 55': 0.02 expected goalsIbrahim Sangaré 61': 0.02 expected goalsOla Aina 62': 0.02 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 63': 0.05 expected goalsChris Wood 64': 0.21 expected goalsTarik Muharemovic 69': 0.10 expected goalsIgor Jesus 73': 0.06 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 85': 0.11 expected goalsAnton Stach 87': 0.03 expected goals, GOALMorgan Gibbs-White 92': 0.07 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.200.400.6001122334455667788MinuteNottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 16': Igor Jesus, 0.04 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 28': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.01 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 32': Nikola Milenkovic, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 35': Ola Aina, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 40': Nikola Milenkovic, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 54': Igor Jesus, 0.12 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 61': Ibrahim Sangaré, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 62': Ola Aina, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 63': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 64': Chris Wood, 0.21 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 73': Igor Jesus, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 92': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 0.74Leeds: 0Leeds, 0': Anton Stach, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 19': Joe Rodon, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 19': Jaka Bijol, 0.07 expected goalsLeeds, 45': Jaka Bijol, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 46': Brenden Aaronson, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 51': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.13 expected goalsLeeds, 52': Anton Stach, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 55': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 69': Tarik Muharemovic, 0.10 expected goalsLeeds, 85': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.11 expected goalsLeeds, 87': Anton Stach, 0.03 expected goals, GOALLeeds: 0.62Nottingham ForestLeedsGOAL Anton Stach 87'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsNottingham ForestLeeds
In full0.740.62
Excluding penalties0.740.62
As the rating counts them0.740.56

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromNottingham ForestLeeds
Open play0.280.28
of which counter-attacks0.000.00
Set pieces0.470.34
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.330.20
Inside the box0.380.49
Shots1211
Expected goals a shot0.060.06

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
0:33LeedsAnton Stach Blocked0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot24
16:21Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Saved0.04ThrowinSetPiecehead9
19:50LeedsJoe Rodon Blocked0.03ThrowinSetPiecehead11
19:52LeedsJaka Bijol Blocked0.07ThrowinSetPiecehead8
28:14Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.01SetPiecefoot27
32:23Nottingham ForestNikola Milenkovic Missed0.05ThrowinSetPiecehead10
35:59Nottingham ForestOla Aina Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot26
40:01Nottingham ForestNikola Milenkovic Post0.06FromCornerhead9
45:33LeedsJaka Bijol Blocked0.06ThrowinSetPiecefoot13
46:52LeedsBrenden Aaronson Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot27
51:01LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Missed0.13RegularPlayfoot20
52:55LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.04DirectFreekickfoot26
54:52Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Missed0.12SetPiecehead7
55:36LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot25
61:00Nottingham ForestIbrahim Sangaré Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot27
62:49Nottingham ForestOla Aina Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot26
63:22Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot15
64:34Nottingham ForestChris Wood Missed0.21RegularPlayfoot18
69:19LeedsTarik Muharemovic Saved0.10ThrowinSetPiecehead8
73:04Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Blocked0.06FromCornerhead9
85:14LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot10
87:07LeedsAnton Stach Goal0.03DirectFreekickfoot30
92:06Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot23

Match statistics

Nottingham ForestLeeds
Corners32
Shots1211
Shots on target23
Shots off target82
Total passes411326
Pass accuracy %78.171.2
Fouls committed1514
Total yellow cards21

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.