Leeds 1–1 Brentford

2026-08-30 14:00, Elland Road. Half time 0–1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin 78'; Kevin Schade 40'

2026-08-30 14:00
Leeds
1–1
Brentford
1.2
expected goals
-0.6 to Leeds
1.7

Brentford created more, 1.7 to 1.2 expected goals, and drew.

12Shots22
1.04Expected goals from open play1.42
0.12From set pieces0.31
1.16Excluding penalties1.73
0.68As the rating counts them1.69
1.0Points the chances deserved1.8

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Leeds creates 1.10 and allows 1.23; Brentford creates 1.29 and allows 1.24.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Leeds win 23 per cent, draw 27, Brentford win 50. Leeds deserved 1.0 points and took 1; Brentford deserved 1.8 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Leeds attack this way →← Brentford attack this wayKevin Schade 0': 0.22 expected goalsNoah Okafor 4': 0.05 expected goalsIgor Thiago 7': 0.04 expected goalsKeane Lewis-Potter 8': 0.01 expected goalsNathan Collins 9': 0.03 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 10': 0.10 expected goalsMikkel Damsgaard 13': 0.04 expected goalsEthan Ampadu 20': 0.02 expected goalsMamadou Sangaré 23': 0.05 expected goalsKevin Schade 39': 0.03 expected goalsMamadou Sangaré 40': 0.12 expected goalsKevin Schade 40': 0.19 expected goals, GOALIgor Thiago 45': 0.01 expected goalsNoah Okafor 49': 0.03 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 54': 0.02 expected goalsNathan Collins 55': 0.02 expected goalsNathan Collins 56': 0.11 expected goalsMikkel Damsgaard 56': 0.04 expected goalsHarry Wilson 62': 0.01 expected goalsJames Justin 63': 0.03 expected goalsDaniel James 68': 0.03 expected goalsDango Ouattara 69': 0.02 expected goalsMamadou Sangaré 70': 0.04 expected goalsIgor Thiago 70': 0.17 expected goalsMichael Kayode 71': 0.04 expected goalsDaniel James 72': 0.08 expected goalsAnton Stach 76': 0.06 expected goalsLukas Nmecha 78': 0.05 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 78': 0.73 expected goals, GOALIgor Thiago 80': 0.06 expected goalsIgor Thiago 80': 0.29 expected goalsDaniel James 81': 0.03 expected goalsDaniel James 83': 0.04 expected goalsCallum Wilson 90': 0.08 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteLeeds: 0Leeds, 4': Noah Okafor, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds, 20': Ethan Ampadu, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 49': Noah Okafor, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 62': Harry Wilson, 0.01 expected goalsLeeds, 63': James Justin, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 68': Daniel James, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 72': Daniel James, 0.08 expected goalsLeeds, 76': Anton Stach, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 78': Lukas Nmecha, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds, 78': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.73 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 81': Daniel James, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 83': Daniel James, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds: 1.16Brentford: 0Brentford, 0': Kevin Schade, 0.22 expected goalsBrentford, 7': Igor Thiago, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 8': Keane Lewis-Potter, 0.01 expected goalsBrentford, 9': Nathan Collins, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 10': Jaidon Anthony, 0.10 expected goalsBrentford, 13': Mikkel Damsgaard, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 23': Mamadou Sangaré, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 39': Kevin Schade, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 40': Mamadou Sangaré, 0.12 expected goalsBrentford, 40': Kevin Schade, 0.19 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 45': Igor Thiago, 0.01 expected goalsBrentford, 54': Jaidon Anthony, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 55': Nathan Collins, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 56': Nathan Collins, 0.11 expected goalsBrentford, 56': Mikkel Damsgaard, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 69': Dango Ouattara, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 70': Mamadou Sangaré, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 70': Igor Thiago, 0.17 expected goalsBrentford, 71': Michael Kayode, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 80': Igor Thiago, 0.06 expected goalsBrentford, 80': Igor Thiago, 0.29 expected goalsBrentford, 90': Callum Wilson, 0.08 expected goalsBrentford: 1.73LeedsBrentfordGOAL Kevin Schade 40'GOAL Dominic Calvert-Lewin 78'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsLeedsBrentford
In full1.161.73
Excluding penalties1.161.73
As the rating counts them0.681.69

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromLeedsBrentford
Open play1.041.42
of which counter-attacks0.080.00
Set pieces0.120.31
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.46
Inside the box0.971.59
Shots1222
Expected goals a shot0.100.08

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
0:31BrentfordKevin Schade Blocked0.22RegularPlayfoot9
4:56LeedsNoah Okafor Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot20
7:52BrentfordIgor Thiago Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot19
8:43BrentfordKeane Lewis-Potter Blocked0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot31
9:24BrentfordNathan Collins Saved0.03FromCornerhead12
10:49BrentfordJaidon Anthony Blocked0.10RegularPlayfoot15
13:37BrentfordMikkel Damsgaard Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot19
20:20LeedsEthan Ampadu Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot27
23:40BrentfordMamadou Sangaré Blocked0.05SetPiecefoot15
39:55BrentfordKevin Schade Missed0.03RegularPlayhead11
40:00BrentfordMamadou Sangaré Missed0.12RegularPlayfoot15
40:04BrentfordKevin Schade Goal0.19RegularPlayfoot9
45:55BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.01FromCornerhead14
49:19LeedsNoah Okafor Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot21
54:46BrentfordJaidon Anthony Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot26
55:23BrentfordNathan Collins Blocked0.02ThrowinSetPiecehead11
56:06BrentfordNathan Collins Blocked0.11FromCornerhead6
56:08BrentfordMikkel Damsgaard Missed0.04FromCornerhead12
62:05LeedsHarry Wilson Blocked0.01RegularPlayfoot29
63:49LeedsJames Justin Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot25
68:44LeedsDaniel James Blocked0.03ThrowinSetPiecefoot19
69:34BrentfordDango Ouattara Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot30
70:10BrentfordMamadou Sangaré Blocked0.04ThrowinSetPiecefoot17
70:55BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.17RegularPlayhead7
71:18BrentfordMichael Kayode Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot24
72:25LeedsDaniel James Missed0.08FastBreakfoot19
76:10LeedsAnton Stach Blocked0.06DirectFreekickfoot25
78:11LeedsLukas Nmecha Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot13
78:12LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Goal0.73RegularPlayfoot3
80:03BrentfordIgor Thiago Saved0.06RegularPlayhead10
80:05BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.29RegularPlayfoot6
81:53LeedsDaniel James Missed0.03FromCornerfoot22
83:09LeedsDaniel James Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot21
90:37BrentfordCallum Wilson Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot15

Match statistics

LeedsBrentford
Corners56
Shots1222
Shots on target25
Shots off target46
Total passes369425
Pass accuracy %76.478.4
Fouls committed513
Total yellow cards04

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.