Chelsea 4–3 Brighton

2026-08-30 14:00, Stamford Bridge. Half time 3–1. Roméo Lavia 3', Pedro Neto 13', João Pedro 31', Cole Palmer 73'; Malick Yalcouyé 34', João Pedro 62' (own goal), Pascal Groß 95'

2026-08-30 14:00
Chelsea
4–3
Brighton
3.5
expected goals
+2.5 to Chelsea
1.0

Chelsea created more, 3.5 to 1.0 expected goals, and won.

17Shots15
2.28Expected goals from open play0.62
1.20From set pieces0.35
3.48Excluding penalties0.97
2.19As the rating counts them0.97
2.7Points the chances deserved0.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.47 and allows 1.19; Brighton creates 1.29 and allows 1.16.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Chelsea win 88 per cent, draw 8, Brighton win 4. Chelsea deserved 2.7 points and took 3; Brighton deserved 0.2 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Chelsea attack this way →← Brighton attack this wayJoão Pedro 3': 0.19 expected goalsRoméo Lavia 3': 0.70 expected goals, GOALPedro Neto 13': 0.24 expected goals, GOALMaxim De Cuyper 23': 0.04 expected goalsJoão Pedro 24': 0.25 expected goalsMalick Yalcouyé 28': 0.23 expected goalsJoão Pedro 31': 0.35 expected goals, GOALCole Palmer 33': 0.06 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 34': 0.05 expected goalsMalick Yalcouyé 34': 0.17 expected goals, GOALJoão Pedro 40': 0.08 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 40': 0.05 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 41': 0.16 expected goalsDiego Gómez 44': 0.09 expected goalsLuka Vuskovic 46': 0.02 expected goalsJoão Pedro 48': 0.22 expected goalsDiego Gómez 53': 0.08 expected goalsDiego Gómez 55': 0.07 expected goalsCole Palmer 56': 0.09 expected goalsPedro Neto 57': 0.30 expected goalsCole Palmer 57': 0.60 expected goalsMats Wieffer 59': 0.05 expected goalsDiego Gómez 61': 0.04 expected goalsDiego Gómez 64': 0.04 expected goalsOlivier Boscagli 68': 0.04 expected goalsMaxence Lacroix 70': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 71': 0.09 expected goalsCole Palmer 73': 0.04 expected goals, GOALFerdi Kadioglu 76': 0.03 expected goalsValentín Barco 85': 0.05 expected goalsLuka Vuskovic 93': 0.01 expected goalsPascal Groß 95': 0.02 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.003.0001122334455667788MinuteChelsea: 0Chelsea, 3': João Pedro, 0.19 expected goalsChelsea, 3': Roméo Lavia, 0.70 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 13': Pedro Neto, 0.24 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 24': João Pedro, 0.25 expected goalsChelsea, 31': João Pedro, 0.35 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 33': Cole Palmer, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 40': João Pedro, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 40': Morgan Rogers, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 41': Morgan Rogers, 0.16 expected goalsChelsea, 48': João Pedro, 0.22 expected goalsChelsea, 56': Cole Palmer, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 57': Pedro Neto, 0.30 expected goalsChelsea, 57': Cole Palmer, 0.60 expected goalsChelsea, 70': Maxence Lacroix, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 71': Morgan Rogers, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 73': Cole Palmer, 0.04 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 85': Valentín Barco, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea: 3.48Brighton: 0Brighton, 23': Maxim De Cuyper, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 28': Malick Yalcouyé, 0.23 expected goalsBrighton, 34': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton, 34': Malick Yalcouyé, 0.17 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 44': Diego Gómez, 0.09 expected goalsBrighton, 46': Luka Vuskovic, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 53': Diego Gómez, 0.08 expected goalsBrighton, 55': Diego Gómez, 0.07 expected goalsBrighton, 59': Mats Wieffer, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton, 61': Diego Gómez, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 64': Diego Gómez, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 68': Olivier Boscagli, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 76': Ferdi Kadioglu, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 93': Luka Vuskovic, 0.01 expected goalsBrighton, 95': Pascal Groß, 0.02 expected goals, GOALBrighton: 0.97ChelseaBrightonGOAL Roméo Lavia 3'GOAL Pedro Neto 13'GOAL João Pedro 31'GOAL Malick Yalcouyé 34'GOAL Cole Palmer 73'GOAL Pascal Groß 95'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsChelseaBrighton
In full3.480.97
Excluding penalties3.480.97
As the rating counts them2.190.97

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromChelseaBrighton
Open play2.280.62
of which counter-attacks0.570.00
Set pieces1.200.35
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.220.19
Inside the box3.280.91
Shots1715
Expected goals a shot0.200.06

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
3:36ChelseaJoão Pedro Saved0.19FromCornerhead5
3:39ChelseaRoméo Lavia Goal0.70FromCornerfoot4
13:09ChelseaPedro Neto Goal0.24ThrowinSetPiecefoot6
23:17BrightonMaxim De Cuyper Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot21
24:30ChelseaJoão Pedro Missed0.25RegularPlayfoot9
28:51BrightonMalick Yalcouyé Saved0.23RegularPlayfoot7
31:13ChelseaJoão Pedro Goal0.35FastBreakfoot9
33:47ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot15
34:46BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Saved0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot13
34:48BrightonMalick Yalcouyé Goal0.17ThrowinSetPiecefoot9
40:26ChelseaJoão Pedro Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot15
40:32ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
41:04ChelseaMorgan Rogers Missed0.16RegularPlayfoot19
44:39BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.09RegularPlayhead9
46:06BrightonLuka Vuskovic Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot29
48:54ChelseaJoão Pedro Blocked0.22FastBreakfoot13
53:17BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot15
55:01BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.07SetPiecehead9
56:01ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot14
57:12ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.30RegularPlayfoot12
57:16ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.60RegularPlayfoot5
59:31BrightonMats Wieffer Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot18
61:54BrightonDiego Gómez Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot20
64:13BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot19
68:58BrightonOlivier Boscagli Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot19
70:16ChelseaMaxence Lacroix Missed0.03SetPiecehead12
71:32ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot15
73:46ChelseaCole Palmer Goal0.04ThrowinSetPiecefoot20
76:34BrightonFerdi Kadioglu Missed0.03FromCornerfoot17
85:39ChelseaValentín Barco Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot19
93:47BrightonLuka Vuskovic Missed0.01SetPiecehead16
95:07BrightonPascal Groß Goal0.02ThrowinSetPiecehead11

Match statistics

ChelseaBrighton
Corners47
Shots1715
Shots on target66
Shots off target58
Total passes227647
Pass accuracy %68.387.6
Fouls committed612
Total yellow cards13

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.