Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea

2026-09-06 16:30, Emirates Stadium. Half time 1–1. Kai Havertz 24', Martin Ødegaard 49'; Morgan Rogers 1'

2026-09-06 16:30
Arsenal
2–1
Chelsea
2.3
expected goals
+1.7 to Arsenal
0.6

Arsenal created more, 2.3 to 0.6 expected goals, and won.

16Shots13
1.65Expected goals from open play0.51
0.64From set pieces0.11
2.29Excluding penalties0.61
1.94As the rating counts them0.54
2.5Points the chances deserved0.4

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Arsenal creates 1.67 and allows 0.86; Chelsea creates 1.51 and allows 1.20.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Arsenal win 78 per cent, draw 15, Chelsea win 7. Arsenal deserved 2.5 points and took 3; Chelsea deserved 0.4 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Arsenal attack this way →← Chelsea attack this wayMorgan Rogers 1': 0.05 expected goals, GOALRiccardo Calafiori 4': 0.14 expected goalsGabriel Magalhães 4': 0.13 expected goalsGabriel Magalhães 11': 0.37 expected goalsKai Havertz 14': 0.19 expected goalsBukayo Saka 17': 0.13 expected goalsKai Havertz 19': 0.11 expected goalsCole Palmer 20': 0.03 expected goalsReece James 22': 0.02 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 22': 0.19 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 23': 0.12 expected goalsKai Havertz 24': 0.04 expected goals, GOALMorgan Rogers 30': 0.06 expected goalsMyles Lewis-Skelly 33': 0.06 expected goalsJoão Pedro 35': 0.07 expected goalsPedro Neto 47': 0.08 expected goalsBukayo Saka 48': 0.04 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 49': 0.36 expected goals, GOALDeclan Rice 55': 0.05 expected goalsBukayo Saka 55': 0.08 expected goalsMalo Gusto 60': 0.05 expected goalsCole Palmer 62': 0.04 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 64': 0.08 expected goalsMartín Zubimendi 68': 0.12 expected goalsBukayo Saka 68': 0.16 expected goalsReece James 75': 0.01 expected goalsCole Palmer 82': 0.04 expected goalsReece James 87': 0.04 expected goalsEstêvão 88': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteArsenal: 0Arsenal, 4': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.14 expected goalsArsenal, 4': Gabriel Magalhães, 0.13 expected goalsArsenal, 11': Gabriel Magalhães, 0.37 expected goalsArsenal, 14': Kai Havertz, 0.19 expected goalsArsenal, 17': Bukayo Saka, 0.13 expected goalsArsenal, 19': Kai Havertz, 0.11 expected goalsArsenal, 22': Martin Ødegaard, 0.19 expected goalsArsenal, 23': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.12 expected goalsArsenal, 24': Kai Havertz, 0.04 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 33': Myles Lewis-Skelly, 0.06 expected goalsArsenal, 48': Bukayo Saka, 0.04 expected goalsArsenal, 49': Martin Ødegaard, 0.36 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 55': Declan Rice, 0.05 expected goalsArsenal, 55': Bukayo Saka, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 68': Martín Zubimendi, 0.12 expected goalsArsenal, 68': Bukayo Saka, 0.16 expected goalsArsenal: 2.29Chelsea: 0Chelsea, 1': Morgan Rogers, 0.05 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 20': Cole Palmer, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 22': Reece James, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 30': Morgan Rogers, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 35': João Pedro, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 47': Pedro Neto, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 60': Malo Gusto, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 62': Cole Palmer, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 64': Morgan Rogers, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 75': Reece James, 0.01 expected goalsChelsea, 82': Cole Palmer, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 87': Reece James, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 88': Estêvão, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea: 0.61ArsenalChelseaGOAL Morgan Rogers 1'GOAL Kai Havertz 24'GOAL Martin Ødegaard 49'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsArsenalChelsea
In full2.290.61
Excluding penalties2.290.61
As the rating counts them1.940.54

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromArsenalChelsea
Open play1.650.51
of which counter-attacks0.740.08
Set pieces0.640.11
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.190.00
Inside the box2.170.25
Shots1613
Expected goals a shot0.140.05

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
1:17ChelseaMorgan Rogers Goal0.05SetPiecefoot18
4:16ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Saved0.14SetPiecefoot9
4:20ArsenalGabriel Magalhães Saved0.13SetPiecefoot6
11:09ArsenalGabriel Magalhães Saved0.37SetPiecefoot7
14:55ArsenalKai Havertz Saved0.19RegularPlayhead6
17:16ArsenalBukayo Saka Saved0.13RegularPlayfoot15
19:32ArsenalKai Havertz Blocked0.11FastBreakfoot14
20:55ChelseaCole Palmer Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
22:14ChelseaReece James Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot29
22:34ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Blocked0.19FastBreakfoot13
23:26ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot13
24:19ArsenalKai Havertz Goal0.04RegularPlayfoot21
30:22ChelseaMorgan Rogers Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot17
33:06ArsenalMyles Lewis-Skelly Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot17
35:59ChelseaJoão Pedro Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot29
47:42ChelseaPedro Neto Post0.08FastBreakfoot20
48:30ArsenalBukayo Saka Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot24
49:40ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Goal0.36FastBreakfoot9
55:03ArsenalDeclan Rice Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot22
55:39ArsenalBukayo Saka Saved0.08FastBreakfoot18
60:30ChelseaMalo Gusto Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot20
62:15ChelseaCole Palmer Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot18
64:48ChelseaMorgan Rogers Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot28
68:08ArsenalMartín Zubimendi Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot14
68:33ArsenalBukayo Saka Saved0.16RegularPlayfoot20
75:00ChelseaReece James Blocked0.01FromCornerfoot26
82:08ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot20
87:28ChelseaReece James Blocked0.04DirectFreekickfoot29
88:26ChelseaEstêvão Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot23

Match statistics

ArsenalChelsea
Corners53
Shots1613
Shots on target95
Shots off target16
Total passes461384
Pass accuracy %84.681.8
Fouls committed1316
Total yellow cards24

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.