Brentford 3–0 Chelsea

2026-09-18 20:00, Gtech Community Stadium. Half time 0–0. Jaidon Anthony 60', Igor Thiago 82', Fábio Carvalho 93'

2026-09-18 20:00
Brentford
3–0
Chelsea
1.6
expected goals
+0.7 to Brentford
0.9

Brentford created more, 1.6 to 0.9 expected goals, and won.

13Shots12
0.87Expected goals from open play0.67
0.72From set pieces0.23
1.60Excluding penalties0.90
1.24As the rating counts them0.90
1.9Points the chances deserved0.8

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brentford creates 1.28 and allows 1.25; Chelsea creates 1.49 and allows 1.22.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Brentford win 56 per cent, draw 25, Chelsea win 18. Brentford deserved 1.9 points and took 3; Chelsea deserved 0.8 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Brentford attack this way →← Chelsea attack this wayIgor Thiago 4': 0.08 expected goalsPedro Neto 9': 0.08 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 9': 0.09 expected goalsKeane Lewis-Potter 22': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 29': 0.06 expected goalsYehor Yarmoliuk 36': 0.04 expected goalsMikkel Damsgaard 38': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 40': 0.04 expected goalsKevin Schade 42': 0.08 expected goalsVitaly Janelt 42': 0.02 expected goalsKeane Lewis-Potter 42': 0.06 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 51': 0.02 expected goalsIgor Thiago 58': 0.03 expected goalsPep Chavarría 58': 0.04 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 60': 0.59 expected goals, GOALKevin Schade 63': 0.11 expected goalsPedro Neto 65': 0.10 expected goalsCole Palmer 67': 0.11 expected goalsValentín Barco 75': 0.07 expected goalsCole Palmer 77': 0.19 expected goalsGeovany Quenda 79': 0.03 expected goalsKevin Schade 82': 0.17 expected goalsIgor Thiago 82': 0.27 expected goals, GOALMaxence Lacroix 92': 0.07 expected goalsFábio Carvalho 93': 0.10 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteBrentford: 0Brentford, 4': Igor Thiago, 0.08 expected goalsBrentford, 22': Keane Lewis-Potter, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 36': Yehor Yarmoliuk, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 38': Mikkel Damsgaard, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 42': Kevin Schade, 0.08 expected goalsBrentford, 42': Vitaly Janelt, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 42': Keane Lewis-Potter, 0.06 expected goalsBrentford, 58': Igor Thiago, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 60': Jaidon Anthony, 0.59 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 63': Kevin Schade, 0.11 expected goalsBrentford, 82': Kevin Schade, 0.17 expected goalsBrentford, 82': Igor Thiago, 0.27 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 93': Fábio Carvalho, 0.10 expected goals, GOALBrentford: 1.60Chelsea: 0Chelsea, 9': Pedro Neto, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 9': Morgan Rogers, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 29': Morgan Rogers, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 40': Morgan Rogers, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 51': Morgan Rogers, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 58': Pep Chavarría, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 65': Pedro Neto, 0.10 expected goalsChelsea, 67': Cole Palmer, 0.11 expected goalsChelsea, 75': Valentín Barco, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 77': Cole Palmer, 0.19 expected goalsChelsea, 79': Geovany Quenda, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 92': Maxence Lacroix, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea: 0.90BrentfordChelseaGOAL Jaidon Anthony 60'GOAL Igor Thiago 82'GOAL Fábio Carvalho 93'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsBrentfordChelsea
In full1.600.90
Excluding penalties1.600.90
As the rating counts them1.240.90

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromBrentfordChelsea
Open play0.870.67
of which counter-attacks0.430.10
Set pieces0.720.23
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.590.07
Inside the box1.480.69
Shots1312
Expected goals a shot0.120.07

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
4:22BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot13
9:02ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.08RegularPlayfoot17
9:06ChelseaMorgan Rogers Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot14
22:54BrentfordKeane Lewis-Potter Blocked0.03ThrowinSetPiecefoot18
29:57ChelseaMorgan Rogers Saved0.06DirectFreekickfoot24
36:11BrentfordYehor Yarmoliuk Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot23
38:37BrentfordMikkel Damsgaard Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
40:54ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot18
42:11BrentfordKevin Schade Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot14
42:13BrentfordVitaly Janelt Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot27
42:18BrentfordKeane Lewis-Potter Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot20
51:03ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot30
58:13BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot23
58:58ChelseaPep Chavarría Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot22
60:24BrentfordJaidon Anthony Goal0.59FromCornerhead2
63:40BrentfordKevin Schade Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot15
65:39ChelseaPedro Neto Blocked0.10FastBreakfoot19
67:52ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot15
75:40ChelseaValentín Barco Blocked0.07FromCornerfoot15
77:40ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.19RegularPlayfoot11
79:54ChelseaGeovany Quenda Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot22
82:00BrentfordKevin Schade Saved0.17FastBreakfoot15
82:03BrentfordIgor Thiago Goal0.27FastBreakfoot11
92:09ChelseaMaxence Lacroix Missed0.07SetPiecehead9
93:56BrentfordFábio Carvalho Goal0.10ThrowinSetPiecefoot7

Match statistics

BrentfordChelsea
Corners412
Shots1312
Shots on target62
Shots off target33
Total passes349514
Pass accuracy %79.186.8
Fouls committed107
Total yellow cards20

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.