Brighton 3–0 Arsenal

2026-09-19 15:00, American Express Stadium. Half time 2–0. Pascal Groß 30', Charalampos Kostoulas 44', Chema Andrés 56'

2026-09-19 15:00
Brighton
3–0
Arsenal
1.7
expected goals
+0.2 to Brighton
1.5

Brighton won a match that was close on chances, 1.7 to 1.5 expected goals.

17Shots11
0.94Expected goals from open play0.84
0.74From set pieces0.66
1.68Excluding penalties1.49
1.40As the rating counts them1.35
1.5Points the chances deserved1.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brighton creates 1.34 and allows 1.19; Arsenal creates 1.67 and allows 0.86.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Brighton win 42 per cent, draw 25, Arsenal win 33. Brighton deserved 1.5 points and took 3; Arsenal deserved 1.2 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Brighton attack this way →← Arsenal attack this wayFerdi Kadioglu 2': 0.10 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 6': 0.03 expected goalsYasin Ayari 7': 0.09 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 19': 0.02 expected goalsPascal Groß 30': 0.03 expected goals, GOALCharalampos Kostoulas 34': 0.03 expected goalsYasin Ayari 39': 0.06 expected goalsOlivier Boscagli 44': 0.02 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 44': 0.08 expected goalsBukayo Saka 44': 0.34 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 44': 0.05 expected goals, GOALCharalampos Kostoulas 50': 0.05 expected goalsEzri Konsa 54': 0.30 expected goalsChema Andrés 56': 0.31 expected goals, GOALPascal Struijk 67': 0.17 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 71': 0.05 expected goalsBukayo Saka 74': 0.06 expected goalsKai Havertz 75': 0.23 expected goalsChema Andrés 75': 0.00 expected goalsKai Havertz 77': 0.26 expected goalsPascal Groß 78': 0.30 expected goalsMaxim De Cuyper 79': 0.02 expected goalsGeorginio Rutter 79': 0.13 expected goalsMatt O'Riley 89': 0.24 expected goalsMalick Yalcouyé 89': 0.05 expected goalsMartín Zubimendi 92': 0.08 expected goalsDeclan Rice 92': 0.02 expected goalsMartín Zubimendi 94': 0.05 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteBrighton: 0Brighton, 2': Ferdi Kadioglu, 0.10 expected goalsBrighton, 6': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 7': Yasin Ayari, 0.09 expected goalsBrighton, 30': Pascal Groß, 0.03 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 34': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 39': Yasin Ayari, 0.06 expected goalsBrighton, 44': Olivier Boscagli, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 44': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.05 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 50': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton, 56': Chema Andrés, 0.31 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 67': Pascal Struijk, 0.17 expected goalsBrighton, 75': Chema Andrés, 0.00 expected goalsBrighton, 78': Pascal Groß, 0.30 expected goalsBrighton, 79': Maxim De Cuyper, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 79': Georginio Rutter, 0.13 expected goalsBrighton, 89': Matt O'Riley, 0.24 expected goalsBrighton, 89': Malick Yalcouyé, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton: 1.68Arsenal: 0Arsenal, 19': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 44': Martin Ødegaard, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 44': Bukayo Saka, 0.34 expected goalsArsenal, 54': Ezri Konsa, 0.30 expected goalsArsenal, 71': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.05 expected goalsArsenal, 74': Bukayo Saka, 0.06 expected goalsArsenal, 75': Kai Havertz, 0.23 expected goalsArsenal, 77': Kai Havertz, 0.26 expected goalsArsenal, 92': Martín Zubimendi, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 92': Declan Rice, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 94': Martín Zubimendi, 0.05 expected goalsArsenal: 1.49BrightonArsenalGOAL Pascal Groß 30'GOAL Charalampos Kostoulas 44'GOAL Chema Andrés 56'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsBrightonArsenal
In full1.681.49
Excluding penalties1.681.49
As the rating counts them1.401.35

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromBrightonArsenal
Open play0.940.84
of which counter-attacks0.100.42
Set pieces0.740.66
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.480.72
Inside the box1.401.47
Shots1711
Expected goals a shot0.100.14

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
2:07BrightonFerdi Kadioglu Missed0.10RegularPlayfoot23
6:14BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot19
7:05BrightonYasin Ayari Blocked0.09FromCornerfoot10
19:49ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Blocked0.02RegularPlayhead14
30:32BrightonPascal Groß Goal0.03RegularPlayfoot24
34:45BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
39:09BrightonYasin Ayari Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot15
44:24BrightonOlivier Boscagli Blocked0.02FromCornerfoot26
44:36ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Blocked0.08FastBreakfoot19
44:39ArsenalBukayo Saka Saved0.34FastBreakfoot8
44:54BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Goal0.05FastBreakfoot24
50:52BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Missed0.05FastBreakfoot22
54:00ArsenalEzri Konsa Blocked0.30FromCornerhead4
56:20BrightonChema Andrés Goal0.31FromCornerhead4
67:10BrightonPascal Struijk Missed0.17FromCornerhead5
71:32ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Missed0.05FromCornerhead8
74:24ArsenalBukayo Saka Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot16
75:01ArsenalKai Havertz Missed0.23FromCornerhead5
75:16BrightonChema Andrés Missed0.00FastBreakfoot59
77:28ArsenalKai Havertz Saved0.26RegularPlayfoot13
78:56BrightonPascal Groß Blocked0.30RegularPlayfoot13
79:45BrightonMaxim De Cuyper Missed0.02FromCornerfoot20
79:46BrightonGeorginio Rutter Missed0.13FromCornerfoot9
89:15BrightonMatt O'Riley Saved0.24RegularPlayfoot9
89:19BrightonMalick Yalcouyé Post0.05RegularPlayfoot16
92:21ArsenalMartín Zubimendi Blocked0.08FromCornerhead7
92:47ArsenalDeclan Rice Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot25
94:09ArsenalMartín Zubimendi Missed0.05RegularPlayhead10

Match statistics

BrightonArsenal
Corners56
Shots1711
Shots on target52
Shots off target94
Total passes343511
Pass accuracy %75.884.7
Fouls committed1311
Total yellow cards41

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.