Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth

2026-10-10 15:00, Stamford Bridge. Half time 2–0. Jordan Henderson 1', Morgan Rogers 2', João Pedro 45', João Pedro 66', Jordan Henderson 69'; Evanilson 50'

2026-10-10 15:00
Chelsea
5–1
Bournemouth
1.1
expected goals
-0.5 to Chelsea
1.6

Chelsea won with 1.1 expected goals to 1.6: the result went against the performance.

10Shots9
1.04Expected goals from open play0.44
0.08From set pieces1.18
1.12Excluding penalties1.62
0.87As the rating counts them0.96
0.9Points the chances deserved1.8

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.47 and allows 1.23; Bournemouth creates 1.26 and allows 1.24.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Chelsea win 22 per cent, draw 27, Bournemouth win 51. Chelsea deserved 0.9 points and took 3; Bournemouth deserved 1.8 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Chelsea attack this way →← Bournemouth attack this wayJordan Henderson 1': 0.05 expected goals, GOALPedro Neto 2': 0.09 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 2': 0.05 expected goals, GOALRayan 5': 0.05 expected goalsPedro Neto 22': 0.05 expected goalsJordan Henderson 22': 0.07 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 26': 0.10 expected goalsRayan 35': 0.17 expected goalsRyan Christie 35': 0.03 expected goalsMoisés Caicedo 42': 0.02 expected goalsJoão Pedro 45': 0.34 expected goals, GOALAntónio Silva 46': 0.08 expected goalsAntónio Silva 50': 0.49 expected goalsEvanilson 50': 0.61 expected goals, GOALEvanilson 60': 0.03 expected goalsJoão Pedro 66': 0.28 expected goals, GOALJordan Henderson 69': 0.06 expected goals, GOALEvanilson 84': 0.03 expected goalsÁlvaro Rodríguez 87': 0.13 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteChelsea: 0Chelsea, 1': Jordan Henderson, 0.05 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 2': Pedro Neto, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 2': Morgan Rogers, 0.05 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 22': Pedro Neto, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 22': Jordan Henderson, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 26': Morgan Rogers, 0.10 expected goalsChelsea, 42': Moisés Caicedo, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 45': João Pedro, 0.34 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 66': João Pedro, 0.28 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 69': Jordan Henderson, 0.06 expected goals, GOALChelsea: 1.12Bournemouth: 0Bournemouth, 5': Rayan, 0.05 expected goalsBournemouth, 35': Rayan, 0.17 expected goalsBournemouth, 35': Ryan Christie, 0.03 expected goalsBournemouth, 46': António Silva, 0.08 expected goalsBournemouth, 50': António Silva, 0.49 expected goalsBournemouth, 50': Evanilson, 0.61 expected goals, GOALBournemouth, 60': Evanilson, 0.03 expected goalsBournemouth, 84': Evanilson, 0.03 expected goalsBournemouth, 87': Álvaro Rodríguez, 0.13 expected goalsBournemouth: 1.62ChelseaBournemouthGOAL Jordan Henderson 1'GOAL Morgan Rogers 2'GOAL João Pedro 45'GOAL Evanilson 50'GOAL João Pedro 66'GOAL Jordan Henderson 69'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsChelseaBournemouth
In full1.121.62
Excluding penalties1.121.62
As the rating counts them0.870.96

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromChelseaBournemouth
Open play1.040.44
of which counter-attacks0.000.00
Set pieces0.081.18
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.020.61
Inside the box0.891.43
Shots109
Expected goals a shot0.110.18

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
1:06ChelseaJordan Henderson Goal0.05RegularPlayfoot21
2:18ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot15
2:29ChelseaMorgan Rogers Goal0.05RegularPlayfoot19
5:39BournemouthRayan Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot17
22:27ChelseaPedro Neto Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot18
22:29ChelseaJordan Henderson Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot18
26:52ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.10RegularPlayfoot14
35:00BournemouthRayan Saved0.17RegularPlayfoot18
35:03BournemouthRyan Christie Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
42:54ChelseaMoisés Caicedo Missed0.02SetPiecehead13
45:29ChelseaJoão Pedro Goal0.34RegularPlayfoot14
46:25BournemouthAntónio Silva Saved0.08FromCornerhead8
50:51BournemouthAntónio Silva Blocked0.49FromCornerhead3
50:53BournemouthEvanilson Goal0.61FromCornerfoot2
60:01BournemouthEvanilson Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot23
66:15ChelseaJoão Pedro Goal0.28RegularPlayfoot7
69:54ChelseaJordan Henderson Goal0.06DirectFreekickfoot24
84:47BournemouthEvanilson Missed0.03RegularPlayhead12
87:49BournemouthÁlvaro Rodríguez Blocked0.13RegularPlayfoot21

Match statistics

ChelseaBournemouth
Corners17
Shots109
Shots on target64
Shots off target23
Total passes488472
Pass accuracy %83.883.7
Fouls committed715
Total yellow cards04

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.