Chelsea 2–2 Hull

2026-09-12 15:00, Stamford Bridge. Half time 1–2. Morgan Rogers 6', João Pedro 65'; Mohamed Belloumi 27', Mohamed Belloumi 33'

2026-09-12 15:00
Chelsea
2–2
Hull
1.0
expected goals
-0.7 to Chelsea
1.7

Hull created more, 1.7 to 1.0 expected goals, and drew.

12Shots14
0.85Expected goals from open play1.46
0.13From set pieces0.23
0.98Excluding penalties1.70
0.82As the rating counts them0.89
0.8Points the chances deserved2.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.49 and allows 1.22; Hull creates 0.77 and allows 1.66.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Chelsea win 17 per cent, draw 26, Hull win 57. Chelsea deserved 0.8 points and took 1; Hull deserved 2.0 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Chelsea attack this way →← Hull attack this wayMohamed Belloumi 5': 0.06 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 6': 0.29 expected goals, GOALJohn Egan 7': 0.00 expected goalsPedro Neto 21': 0.09 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 27': 0.29 expected goals, GOALLewie Coyle 32': 0.08 expected goalsSemi Ajayi 33': 0.11 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 33': 0.07 expected goals, GOALMalo Gusto 46': 0.03 expected goalsElliot Stroud 46': 0.01 expected goalsReece James 50': 0.01 expected goalsReece James 52': 0.05 expected goalsMohamed-Ali Cho 60': 0.02 expected goalsRegan Slater 60': 0.03 expected goalsOliver McBurnie 60': 0.76 expected goalsJoão Pedro 65': 0.21 expected goals, GOALCole Palmer 69': 0.01 expected goalsReece James 75': 0.05 expected goalsCole Palmer 77': 0.06 expected goalsBrooke Norton-Cuffy 83': 0.04 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 83': 0.08 expected goalsMohamed-Ali Cho 86': 0.16 expected goalsSorba Thomas 86': 0.03 expected goalsEstêvão 90': 0.06 expected goalsJohn Egan 93': 0.04 expected goalsCole Palmer 96': 0.04 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001224364860728496MinuteChelsea: 0Chelsea, 6': Morgan Rogers, 0.29 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 21': Pedro Neto, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 46': Malo Gusto, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 50': Reece James, 0.01 expected goalsChelsea, 52': Reece James, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 65': João Pedro, 0.21 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 69': Cole Palmer, 0.01 expected goalsChelsea, 75': Reece James, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 77': Cole Palmer, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 83': Morgan Rogers, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 90': Estêvão, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 96': Cole Palmer, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea: 0.98Hull: 0Hull, 5': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.06 expected goalsHull, 7': John Egan, 0.00 expected goalsHull, 27': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.29 expected goals, GOALHull, 32': Lewie Coyle, 0.08 expected goalsHull, 33': Semi Ajayi, 0.11 expected goalsHull, 33': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.07 expected goals, GOALHull, 46': Elliot Stroud, 0.01 expected goalsHull, 60': Mohamed-Ali Cho, 0.02 expected goalsHull, 60': Regan Slater, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 60': Oliver McBurnie, 0.76 expected goalsHull, 83': Brooke Norton-Cuffy, 0.04 expected goalsHull, 86': Mohamed-Ali Cho, 0.16 expected goalsHull, 86': Sorba Thomas, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 93': John Egan, 0.04 expected goalsHull: 1.70ChelseaHullGOAL Morgan Rogers 6'GOAL Mohamed Belloumi 27'GOAL Mohamed Belloumi 33'GOAL João Pedro 65'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsChelseaHull
In full0.981.70
Excluding penalties0.981.70
As the rating counts them0.820.89

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromChelseaHull
Open play0.851.46
of which counter-attacks0.460.04
Set pieces0.130.23
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.17
Inside the box0.791.56
Shots1214
Expected goals a shot0.080.12

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
5:21HullMohamed Belloumi Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot18
6:15ChelseaMorgan Rogers Goal0.29FastBreakfoot17
7:25HullJohn Egan Missed0.00RegularPlayfoot48
21:34ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.09FastBreakfoot17
27:39HullMohamed Belloumi Goal0.29RegularPlayfoot13
32:20HullLewie Coyle Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot16
33:09HullSemi Ajayi Post0.11FromCornerhead7
33:12HullMohamed Belloumi Goal0.07FromCornerfoot17
46:53ChelseaMalo Gusto Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot21
46:54HullElliot Stroud Missed0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot26
50:39ChelseaReece James Saved0.01DirectFreekickfoot41
52:47ChelseaReece James Missed0.05DirectFreekickfoot26
60:07HullMohamed-Ali Cho Missed0.02RegularPlayhead13
60:16HullRegan Slater Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
60:19HullOliver McBurnie Saved0.76RegularPlayfoot6
65:22ChelseaJoão Pedro Goal0.21RegularPlayfoot8
69:17ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot32
75:31ChelseaReece James Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot21
77:55ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot17
83:23HullBrooke Norton-Cuffy Blocked0.04FastBreakfoot23
83:39ChelseaMorgan Rogers Saved0.08FastBreakfoot17
86:47HullMohamed-Ali Cho Saved0.16RegularPlayfoot9
86:55HullSorba Thomas Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
90:37ChelseaEstêvão Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot13
93:21HullJohn Egan Missed0.04FromCornerhead9
96:30ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.04DirectFreekickfoot29

Match statistics

ChelseaHull
Corners114
Shots1214
Shots on target75
Shots off target45
Total passes577265
Pass accuracy %87.270.2
Fouls committed712
Total yellow cards15

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.