Coventry 4–1 Newcastle

2026-10-12 20:00, Coventry Building Society Arena. Half time 1–0. Jack Rudoni 5', Sidiki Cherif 47', Ellis Simms 80', Stephen Mfuni 85'; Sven Botman 69'

2026-10-12 20:00
Coventry
4–1
Newcastle
2.0
expected goals
-0.4 to Coventry
2.4

Coventry won with 2.0 expected goals to 2.4: the result went against the performance.

9Shots19
1.00Expected goals from open play2.35
0.18From set pieces0.05
0.82From penalties0.00
1.18Excluding penalties2.40
1.04As the rating counts them1.78
1.1Points the chances deserved1.6

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Coventry creates 0.94 and allows 1.39; Newcastle creates 1.30 and allows 1.29.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Coventry win 30 per cent, draw 24, Newcastle win 46. Coventry deserved 1.1 points and took 3; Newcastle deserved 1.6 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Coventry attack this way →← Newcastle attack this wayJack Rudoni 5': 0.82 expected goals, GOALHarvey Barnes 9': 0.07 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 12': 0.09 expected goalsJoe Willock 22': 0.04 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 22': 0.28 expected goalsSidiki Cherif 28': 0.08 expected goalsJacob Murphy 29': 0.07 expected goalsJacob Murphy 30': 0.30 expected goalsJoe Willock 37': 0.07 expected goalsMatias Fernandez-Pardo 42': 0.48 expected goalsJoe Willock 43': 0.06 expected goalsSidiki Cherif 47': 0.03 expected goals, GOALJoe Willock 49': 0.19 expected goalsYoane Wissa 52': 0.03 expected goalsSidiki Cherif 54': 0.45 expected goalsJoe Willock 58': 0.12 expected goalsBazoumana Touré 60': 0.02 expected goalsSven Botman 69': 0.02 expected goals, GOALLewis Hall 71': 0.03 expected goalsYoane Wissa 74': 0.40 expected goalsBazoumana Touré 79': 0.04 expected goalsEllis Simms 80': 0.35 expected goals, GOALBrandon Thomas-Asante 83': 0.03 expected goalsFrank Onyeka 83': 0.04 expected goalsStephen Mfuni 84': 0.15 expected goalsStephen Mfuni 85': 0.05 expected goals, GOALWilliam Osula 89': 0.06 expected goalsAmar Dedic 91': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteCoventry: 0Coventry, 5': Jack Rudoni, 0.82 expected goals, GOALCoventry, 28': Sidiki Cherif, 0.08 expected goalsCoventry, 47': Sidiki Cherif, 0.03 expected goals, GOALCoventry, 54': Sidiki Cherif, 0.45 expected goalsCoventry, 80': Ellis Simms, 0.35 expected goals, GOALCoventry, 83': Brandon Thomas-Asante, 0.03 expected goalsCoventry, 83': Frank Onyeka, 0.04 expected goalsCoventry, 84': Stephen Mfuni, 0.15 expected goalsCoventry, 85': Stephen Mfuni, 0.05 expected goals, GOALCoventry: 2.00Newcastle: 0Newcastle, 9': Harvey Barnes, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 12': Harvey Barnes, 0.09 expected goalsNewcastle, 22': Joe Willock, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 22': Harvey Barnes, 0.28 expected goalsNewcastle, 29': Jacob Murphy, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 30': Jacob Murphy, 0.30 expected goalsNewcastle, 37': Joe Willock, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 42': Matias Fernandez-Pardo, 0.48 expected goalsNewcastle, 43': Joe Willock, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 49': Joe Willock, 0.19 expected goalsNewcastle, 52': Yoane Wissa, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 58': Joe Willock, 0.12 expected goalsNewcastle, 60': Bazoumana Touré, 0.02 expected goalsNewcastle, 69': Sven Botman, 0.02 expected goals, GOALNewcastle, 71': Lewis Hall, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 74': Yoane Wissa, 0.40 expected goalsNewcastle, 79': Bazoumana Touré, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 89': William Osula, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 91': Amar Dedic, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle: 2.40CoventryNewcastleGOAL Jack Rudoni 5'GOAL Sidiki Cherif 47'GOAL Sven Botman 69'GOAL Ellis Simms 80'GOAL Stephen Mfuni 85'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsCoventryNewcastle
In full2.002.40
Excluding penalties1.182.40
As the rating counts them1.041.78

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromCoventryNewcastle
Open play1.002.35
of which counter-attacks0.530.48
Set pieces0.180.05
Penalties0.820.00
Headers0.150.19
Inside the box1.072.06
Shots919
Expected goals a shot0.220.13

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
5:40CoventryJack Rudoni Goal0.82Penaltyfoot11
9:59NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
12:51NewcastleHarvey Barnes Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot15
22:13NewcastleJoe Willock Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot23
22:16NewcastleHarvey Barnes Missed0.28RegularPlayfoot8
28:17CoventrySidiki Cherif Saved0.08FastBreakfoot19
29:27NewcastleJacob Murphy Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot27
30:49NewcastleJacob Murphy Missed0.30RegularPlayfoot5
37:16NewcastleJoe Willock Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
42:20NewcastleMatias Fernandez-Pardo Saved0.48FastBreakfoot12
43:35NewcastleJoe Willock Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot19
47:55CoventrySidiki Cherif Goal0.03ThrowinSetPiecefoot18
49:48NewcastleJoe Willock Missed0.19RegularPlayhead6
52:41NewcastleYoane Wissa Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
54:26CoventrySidiki Cherif Blocked0.45FastBreakfoot12
58:04NewcastleJoe Willock Missed0.12RegularPlayfoot13
60:36NewcastleBazoumana Touré Saved0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot27
69:28NewcastleSven Botman Goal0.02RegularPlayfoot24
71:27NewcastleLewis Hall Saved0.03FromCornerfoot26
74:23NewcastleYoane Wissa Blocked0.40RegularPlayfoot12
79:12NewcastleBazoumana Touré Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot21
80:37CoventryEllis Simms Goal0.35RegularPlayfoot15
83:51CoventryBrandon Thomas-Asante Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
83:54CoventryFrank Onyeka Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot22
84:39CoventryStephen Mfuni Saved0.15FromCornerhead6
85:50CoventryStephen Mfuni Goal0.05RegularPlayfoot18
89:08NewcastleWilliam Osula Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot15
91:31NewcastleAmar Dedic Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25

Match statistics

CoventryNewcastle
Corners26
Shots919
Shots on target66
Shots off target07
Total passes264548
Pass accuracy %70.186.1
Fouls committed310
Total yellow cards11

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.