Leeds 1–1 Man Utd

2026-10-18 14:00, Elland Road. Half time 0–1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin 50'; Bryan Mbeumo 34'

2026-10-18 14:00
Leeds
1–1
Man Utd
1.2
expected goals
+0.3 to Leeds
0.9

Leeds created more, 1.2 to 0.9 expected goals, and drew.

12Shots13
0.43Expected goals from open play0.78
0.78From set pieces0.11
1.22Excluding penalties0.90
1.16As the rating counts them0.88
1.6Points the chances deserved1.1

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Leeds creates 1.10 and allows 1.22; Man Utd creates 1.48 and allows 1.18.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Leeds win 44 per cent, draw 30, Man Utd win 26. Leeds deserved 1.6 points and took 1; Man Utd deserved 1.1 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Leeds attack this way →← Man Utd attack this wayLisandro Martínez 11': 0.02 expected goalsNico Elvedi 25': 0.10 expected goalsBryan Mbeumo 26': 0.10 expected goalsBryan Mbeumo 32': 0.16 expected goalsBryan Mbeumo 34': 0.26 expected goals, GOALAo Tanaka 36': 0.04 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 38': 0.12 expected goalsJayden Bogle 41': 0.08 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 49': 0.09 expected goalsTarik Muharemovic 50': 0.06 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 50': 0.30 expected goals, GOALAo Tanaka 55': 0.04 expected goalsCarlos Baleba 58': 0.01 expected goalsNoah Okafor 62': 0.01 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 64': 0.05 expected goalsYouri Tielemans 70': 0.03 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 70': 0.02 expected goalsAnton Stach 71': 0.07 expected goalsAmad Diallo 75': 0.10 expected goalsMason Mount 75': 0.07 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 87': 0.02 expected goalsAmad Diallo 87': 0.03 expected goalsLukas Nmecha 90': 0.26 expected goalsAnton Stach 90': 0.06 expected goalsMatheus Cunha 93': 0.02 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.250.500.751.0001122334455667788MinuteLeeds: 0Leeds, 25': Nico Elvedi, 0.10 expected goalsLeeds, 36': Ao Tanaka, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 38': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.12 expected goalsLeeds, 41': Jayden Bogle, 0.08 expected goalsLeeds, 49': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.09 expected goalsLeeds, 50': Tarik Muharemovic, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 50': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.30 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 55': Ao Tanaka, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 62': Noah Okafor, 0.01 expected goalsLeeds, 71': Anton Stach, 0.07 expected goalsLeeds, 90': Lukas Nmecha, 0.26 expected goalsLeeds, 90': Anton Stach, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds: 1.22Man Utd: 0Man Utd, 11': Lisandro Martínez, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 26': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.10 expected goalsMan Utd, 32': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.16 expected goalsMan Utd, 34': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.26 expected goals, GOALMan Utd, 58': Carlos Baleba, 0.01 expected goalsMan Utd, 64': Bruno Fernandes, 0.05 expected goalsMan Utd, 70': Youri Tielemans, 0.03 expected goalsMan Utd, 70': Bruno Fernandes, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 75': Amad Diallo, 0.10 expected goalsMan Utd, 75': Mason Mount, 0.07 expected goalsMan Utd, 87': Bruno Fernandes, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 87': Amad Diallo, 0.03 expected goalsMan Utd, 93': Matheus Cunha, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd: 0.90LeedsMan UtdGOAL Bryan Mbeumo 34'GOAL Dominic Calvert-Lewin 50'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsLeedsMan Utd
In full1.220.90
Excluding penalties1.220.90
As the rating counts them1.160.88

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromLeedsMan Utd
Open play0.430.78
of which counter-attacks0.000.10
Set pieces0.780.11
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.280.10
Inside the box1.140.74
Shots1213
Expected goals a shot0.100.07

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
11:38Man UtdLisandro Martínez Blocked0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot24
25:41LeedsNico Elvedi Saved0.10SetPiecehead8
26:40Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Missed0.10RegularPlayhead9
32:58Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Saved0.16RegularPlayfoot18
34:32Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Goal0.26RegularPlayfoot7
36:11LeedsAo Tanaka Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot23
38:30LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Missed0.12RegularPlayhead12
41:50LeedsJayden Bogle Saved0.08RegularPlayfoot17
49:09LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Missed0.09RegularPlayother10
50:45LeedsTarik Muharemovic Missed0.06FromCornerhead8
50:47LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Goal0.30FromCornerfoot6
55:10LeedsAo Tanaka Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot20
58:50Man UtdCarlos Baleba Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot31
62:43LeedsNoah Okafor Missed0.01FromCornerfoot18
64:56Man UtdBruno Fernandes Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot18
70:04Man UtdYouri Tielemans Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
70:47Man UtdBruno Fernandes Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot26
71:46LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot15
75:06Man UtdAmad Diallo Blocked0.10FastBreakfoot18
75:55Man UtdMason Mount Blocked0.07FromCornerfoot16
87:34Man UtdBruno Fernandes Blocked0.02FromCornerfoot29
87:48Man UtdAmad Diallo Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot26
90:38LeedsLukas Nmecha Blocked0.26ThrowinSetPiecefoot7
90:46LeedsAnton Stach Saved0.06ThrowinSetPiecefoot12
93:38Man UtdMatheus Cunha Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot27

Match statistics

LeedsMan Utd
Corners23
Shots1213
Shots on target53
Shots off target64
Total passes530345
Pass accuracy %83.674.2
Fouls committed165
Total yellow cards22

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.