Man City 3–2 Ipswich

2026-10-17 16:00, Etihad Stadium. Half time 2–1. Phil Foden 18', Erling Haaland 33', Erling Haaland 68'; Daizen Maeda 20', Zian Flemming 89'

2026-10-17 16:00
Man City
3–2
Ipswich
3.5
expected goals
+2.3 to Man City
1.3

Man City created more, 3.5 to 1.3 expected goals, and won.

19Shots8
3.15Expected goals from open play0.34
0.40From set pieces0.12
0.00From penalties0.82
3.55Excluding penalties0.46
2.34As the rating counts them0.87
2.7Points the chances deserved0.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man City creates 1.83 and allows 1.01; Ipswich creates 0.97 and allows 1.43.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Man City win 86 per cent, draw 10, Ipswich win 4. Man City deserved 2.7 points and took 3; Ipswich deserved 0.2 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Man City attack this way →← Ipswich attack this wayRúben Dias 5': 0.22 expected goalsRúben Dias 16': 0.03 expected goalsPhil Foden 18': 0.46 expected goals, GOALDaizen Maeda 20': 0.10 expected goals, GOALPhil Foden 22': 0.04 expected goalsEmersonn 28': 0.03 expected goalsErling Haaland 32': 0.22 expected goalsErling Haaland 33': 0.11 expected goalsErling Haaland 33': 0.09 expected goals, GOALIliman Ndiaye 39': 0.03 expected goalsJérémy Doku 39': 0.09 expected goalsRúben Dias 42': 0.03 expected goalsJacob Greaves 48': 0.04 expected goalsAbdoul Ouattara 51': 0.07 expected goalsEmersonn 54': 0.08 expected goalsNico O'Reilly 55': 0.13 expected goalsPhil Foden 56': 0.05 expected goalsEnzo Fernández 63': 0.05 expected goalsEmersonn 66': 0.08 expected goalsErling Haaland 68': 0.78 expected goals, GOALZian Flemming 79': 0.07 expected goalsEnzo Fernández 84': 0.19 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 84': 0.40 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 84': 0.43 expected goalsZian Flemming 89': 0.82 expected goals, GOALIliman Ndiaye 95': 0.08 expected goalsErling Haaland 100': 0.12 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.003.0001224364860728496MinuteMan City: 0Man City, 5': Rúben Dias, 0.22 expected goalsMan City, 16': Rúben Dias, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 18': Phil Foden, 0.46 expected goals, GOALMan City, 22': Phil Foden, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 32': Erling Haaland, 0.22 expected goalsMan City, 33': Erling Haaland, 0.11 expected goalsMan City, 33': Erling Haaland, 0.09 expected goals, GOALMan City, 39': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 39': Jérémy Doku, 0.09 expected goalsMan City, 42': Rúben Dias, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 55': Nico O'Reilly, 0.13 expected goalsMan City, 56': Phil Foden, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 63': Enzo Fernández, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 68': Erling Haaland, 0.78 expected goals, GOALMan City, 84': Enzo Fernández, 0.19 expected goalsMan City, 84': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.40 expected goalsMan City, 84': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.43 expected goalsMan City, 95': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.08 expected goalsMan City, 100': Erling Haaland, 0.12 expected goalsMan City: 3.55Ipswich: 0Ipswich, 20': Daizen Maeda, 0.10 expected goals, GOALIpswich, 28': Emersonn, 0.03 expected goalsIpswich, 48': Jacob Greaves, 0.04 expected goalsIpswich, 51': Abdoul Ouattara, 0.07 expected goalsIpswich, 54': Emersonn, 0.08 expected goalsIpswich, 66': Emersonn, 0.08 expected goalsIpswich, 79': Zian Flemming, 0.07 expected goalsIpswich, 89': Zian Flemming, 0.82 expected goals, GOALIpswich: 1.28Man CityIpswichGOAL Phil Foden 18'GOAL Daizen Maeda 20'GOAL Erling Haaland 33'GOAL Erling Haaland 68'GOAL Zian Flemming 89'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsMan CityIpswich
In full3.551.28
Excluding penalties3.550.46
As the rating counts them2.340.87

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromMan CityIpswich
Open play3.150.34
of which counter-attacks1.360.08
Set pieces0.400.12
Penalties0.000.82
Headers0.900.12
Inside the box3.390.44
Shots198
Expected goals a shot0.190.16

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
5:15Man CityRúben Dias Missed0.22SetPiecehead6
16:58Man CityRúben Dias Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot26
18:01Man CityPhil Foden Goal0.46FastBreakfoot8
20:36IpswichDaizen Maeda Goal0.10RegularPlayfoot13
22:30Man CityPhil Foden Missed0.04RegularPlayhead11
28:49IpswichEmersonn Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot26
32:12Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.22RegularPlayfoot14
33:27Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot14
33:51Man CityErling Haaland Goal0.09RegularPlayhead9
39:56Man CityIliman Ndiaye Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot20
39:59Man CityJérémy Doku Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot14
42:50Man CityRúben Dias Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot26
48:14IpswichJacob Greaves Missed0.04FromCornerhead10
51:24IpswichAbdoul Ouattara Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot16
54:29IpswichEmersonn Missed0.08FromCornerhead7
55:46Man CityNico O'Reilly Missed0.13FromCornerhead6
56:40Man CityPhil Foden Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot21
63:11Man CityEnzo Fernández Missed0.05DirectFreekickfoot26
66:47IpswichEmersonn Missed0.08FastBreakfoot18
68:40Man CityErling Haaland Goal0.78FastBreakfoot9
79:27IpswichZian Flemming Saved0.07RegularPlayfoot16
84:23Man CityEnzo Fernández Saved0.19RegularPlayfoot11
84:30Man CityIliman Ndiaye Post0.40RegularPlayfoot7
84:33Man CityIliman Ndiaye Missed0.43RegularPlayhead4
89:54IpswichZian Flemming Goal0.82Penaltyfoot11
95:33Man CityIliman Ndiaye Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot15
100:36Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.12FastBreakfoot17

Match statistics

Man CityIpswich
Corners23
Shots198
Shots on target63
Shots off target75
Total passes744313
Pass accuracy %90.580.8
Fouls committed816
Total yellow cards12

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.