Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal

2026-10-18 16:30, The City Ground. Half time 0–0. Noni Madueke 79'

2026-10-18 16:30
Nottingham Forest
0–1
Arsenal
0.9
expected goals
-0.1 to Nottingham Forest
0.9

Arsenal won a match that was close on chances, 0.9 to 0.9 expected goals.

14Shots9
0.46Expected goals from open play0.44
0.40From set pieces0.49
0.86Excluding penalties0.93
0.86As the rating counts them0.93
1.3Points the chances deserved1.4

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Nottingham Forest creates 1.16 and allows 1.23; Arsenal creates 1.66 and allows 0.89.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Nottingham Forest win 31 per cent, draw 33, Arsenal win 36. Nottingham Forest deserved 1.3 points and took 0; Arsenal deserved 1.4 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Nottingham Forest attack this way →← Arsenal attack this wayDan Ndoye 18': 0.05 expected goalsGabriel Magalhães 25': 0.14 expected goalsLiam Delap 34': 0.05 expected goalsKai Havertz 36': 0.15 expected goalsKai Havertz 40': 0.07 expected goalsNeco Williams 44': 0.10 expected goalsJames McAtee 47': 0.02 expected goalsXaver Schlager 47': 0.01 expected goalsMurillo 47': 0.09 expected goalsJames McAtee 48': 0.07 expected goalsNoni Madueke 52': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 52': 0.03 expected goalsMurillo 53': 0.04 expected goalsDan Ndoye 62': 0.09 expected goalsGabriel Magalhães 66': 0.20 expected goalsLiam Delap 68': 0.04 expected goalsDeclan Rice 71': 0.13 expected goalsViktor Gyökeres 78': 0.12 expected goalsNoni Madueke 79': 0.03 expected goals, GOALMikel Merino 81': 0.07 expected goalsChris Wood 88': 0.07 expected goalsMurillo 91': 0.09 expected goalsLiam Delap 92': 0.12 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.200.400.600.8001122334455667788MinuteNottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 18': Dan Ndoye, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Liam Delap, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 44': Neco Williams, 0.10 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 47': James McAtee, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 47': Xaver Schlager, 0.01 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 47': Murillo, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 48': James McAtee, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 52': Liam Delap, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 53': Murillo, 0.04 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 62': Dan Ndoye, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 68': Liam Delap, 0.04 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 88': Chris Wood, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 91': Murillo, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 92': Liam Delap, 0.12 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 0.86Arsenal: 0Arsenal, 25': Gabriel Magalhães, 0.14 expected goalsArsenal, 36': Kai Havertz, 0.15 expected goalsArsenal, 40': Kai Havertz, 0.07 expected goalsArsenal, 52': Noni Madueke, 0.03 expected goalsArsenal, 66': Gabriel Magalhães, 0.20 expected goalsArsenal, 71': Declan Rice, 0.13 expected goalsArsenal, 78': Viktor Gyökeres, 0.12 expected goalsArsenal, 79': Noni Madueke, 0.03 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 81': Mikel Merino, 0.07 expected goalsArsenal: 0.93Nottingham ForestArsenalGOAL Noni Madueke 79'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsNottingham ForestArsenal
In full0.860.93
Excluding penalties0.860.93
As the rating counts them0.860.93

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromNottingham ForestArsenal
Open play0.460.44
of which counter-attacks0.250.00
Set pieces0.400.49
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.040.47
Inside the box0.570.84
Shots149
Expected goals a shot0.060.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
18:16Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot19
25:36ArsenalGabriel Magalhães Blocked0.14FromCornerfoot9
34:01Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot24
36:31ArsenalKai Havertz Missed0.15SetPiecehead7
40:21ArsenalKai Havertz Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot13
44:50Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.10DirectFreekickfoot22
47:08Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Missed0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot24
47:58Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Missed0.01FromCornerfoot27
47:59Nottingham ForestMurillo Blocked0.09FromCornerfoot13
48:03Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot23
52:00ArsenalNoni Madueke Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot23
52:37Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
53:21Nottingham ForestMurillo Saved0.04FromCornerhead10
62:56Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Blocked0.09FastBreakfoot16
66:22ArsenalGabriel Magalhães Missed0.20FromCornerhead5
68:49Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Saved0.04FastBreakfoot25
71:31ArsenalDeclan Rice Missed0.13RegularPlayfoot13
78:37ArsenalViktor Gyökeres Missed0.12RegularPlayhead8
79:30ArsenalNoni Madueke Goal0.03RegularPlayfoot21
81:54ArsenalMikel Merino Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
88:44Nottingham ForestChris Wood Blocked0.07ThrowinSetPiecefoot13
91:11Nottingham ForestMurillo Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot16
92:43Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.12FastBreakfoot16

Match statistics

Nottingham ForestArsenal
Corners86
Shots149
Shots on target21
Shots off target65
Total passes221629
Pass accuracy %70.189.8
Fouls committed148
Total yellow cards11

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.