Aston Villa 2–1 Man City

2026-10-24 13:30, Villa Park. Half time 1–0. Nicolas Jackson 5', Nicolas Jackson 59'; Erling Haaland 51'

2026-10-24 13:30
Aston Villa
2–1
Man City
1.0
expected goals
-1.0 to Aston Villa
2.0

Aston Villa won with 1.0 expected goals to 2.0: the result went against the performance.

8Shots15
0.85Expected goals from open play1.53
0.18From set pieces0.46
1.03Excluding penalties2.00
0.68As the rating counts them1.41
0.7Points the chances deserved2.1

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.24 and allows 1.26; Man City creates 1.88 and allows 1.03.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Aston Villa win 15 per cent, draw 22, Man City win 62. Aston Villa deserved 0.7 points and took 3; Man City deserved 2.1 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Aston Villa attack this way →← Man City attack this wayIan Maatsen 3': 0.04 expected goalsAlysson 5': 0.07 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 5': 0.29 expected goals, GOALEnzo Fernández 11': 0.07 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 12': 0.04 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 18': 0.04 expected goalsRayan Cherki 20': 0.13 expected goalsAbdukodir Khusanov 23': 0.02 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 27': 0.05 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 33': 0.07 expected goalsJérémy Doku 35': 0.05 expected goalsAlysson 39': 0.11 expected goalsIan Maatsen 46': 0.09 expected goalsErling Haaland 51': 0.29 expected goals, GOALJosko Gvardiol 55': 0.20 expected goalsJérémy Doku 58': 0.10 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 59': 0.32 expected goals, GOALJosko Gvardiol 64': 0.06 expected goalsJosko Gvardiol 67': 0.67 expected goalsPhil Foden 85': 0.04 expected goalsErling Haaland 88': 0.13 expected goalsJérémy Doku 88': 0.05 expected goalsErling Haaland 92': 0.08 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteAston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 3': Ian Maatsen, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 5': Alysson, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 5': Nicolas Jackson, 0.29 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 18': Nicolas Jackson, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 33': Johan Manzambi, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 39': Alysson, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 46': Ian Maatsen, 0.09 expected goalsAston Villa, 59': Nicolas Jackson, 0.32 expected goals, GOALAston Villa: 1.03Man City: 0Man City, 11': Enzo Fernández, 0.07 expected goalsMan City, 12': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 20': Rayan Cherki, 0.13 expected goalsMan City, 23': Abdukodir Khusanov, 0.02 expected goalsMan City, 27': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 35': Jérémy Doku, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 51': Erling Haaland, 0.29 expected goals, GOALMan City, 55': Josko Gvardiol, 0.20 expected goalsMan City, 58': Jérémy Doku, 0.10 expected goalsMan City, 64': Josko Gvardiol, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 67': Josko Gvardiol, 0.67 expected goalsMan City, 85': Phil Foden, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 88': Erling Haaland, 0.13 expected goalsMan City, 88': Jérémy Doku, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 92': Erling Haaland, 0.08 expected goalsMan City: 2.00Aston VillaMan CityGOAL Nicolas Jackson 5'GOAL Erling Haaland 51'GOAL Nicolas Jackson 59'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsAston VillaMan City
In full1.032.00
Excluding penalties1.032.00
As the rating counts them0.681.41

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromAston VillaMan City
Open play0.851.53
of which counter-attacks0.140.10
Set pieces0.180.46
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.57
Inside the box0.921.83
Shots815
Expected goals a shot0.130.13

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
3:47Aston VillaIan Maatsen Missed0.04FromCornerfoot17
5:04Aston VillaAlysson Blocked0.07FromCornerfoot15
5:54Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Goal0.29RegularPlayfoot13
11:56Man CityEnzo Fernández Blocked0.07FromCornerfoot15
12:39Man CityIliman Ndiaye Saved0.04FromCornerfoot21
18:35Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Missed0.04FastBreakfoot24
20:38Man CityRayan Cherki Saved0.13RegularPlayfoot12
23:37Man CityAbdukodir Khusanov Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot25
27:48Man CityIliman Ndiaye Post0.05RegularPlayfoot18
33:38Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot22
35:09Man CityJérémy Doku Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
39:04Aston VillaAlysson Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot14
46:05Aston VillaIan Maatsen Blocked0.09FastBreakfoot18
51:57Man CityErling Haaland Goal0.29SetPiecehead5
55:42Man CityJosko Gvardiol Saved0.20RegularPlayfoot14
58:16Man CityJérémy Doku Missed0.10FastBreakfoot20
59:51Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Goal0.32RegularPlayfoot15
64:52Man CityJosko Gvardiol Missed0.06FromCornerhead8
67:49Man CityJosko Gvardiol Saved0.67RegularPlayfoot7
85:53Man CityPhil Foden Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot22
88:43Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.13RegularPlayhead8
88:51Man CityJérémy Doku Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot15
92:17Man CityErling Haaland Saved0.08RegularPlayhead9

Match statistics

Aston VillaMan City
Corners47
Shots815
Shots on target27
Shots off target34
Total passes314528
Pass accuracy %80.989.4
Fouls committed2117
Total yellow cards44

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.