Crystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle

2026-10-25 14:00, Selhurst Park. Half time 0–0. William Osula 46', Harvey Barnes 57'

2026-10-25 14:00
Crystal Palace
0–2
Newcastle
2.0
expected goals
+0.9 to Crystal Palace
1.1

Newcastle won with 1.1 expected goals to 2.0: the result went against the performance.

17Shots10
0.50Expected goals from open play0.82
1.49From set pieces0.29
1.98Excluding penalties1.11
1.52As the rating counts them0.92
2.0Points the chances deserved0.8

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Crystal Palace creates 1.17 and allows 1.36; Newcastle creates 1.32 and allows 1.33.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Crystal Palace win 60 per cent, draw 22, Newcastle win 18. Crystal Palace deserved 2.0 points and took 0; Newcastle deserved 0.8 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Crystal Palace attack this way →← Newcastle attack this wayAxel Disasi 2': 0.17 expected goalsAxel Disasi 2': 0.18 expected goalsJean-Philippe Mateta 2': 0.49 expected goalsJean-Philippe Mateta 2': 0.47 expected goalsTyrick Mitchell 3': 0.01 expected goalsDaichi Kamada 6': 0.08 expected goalsWilliam Osula 8': 0.18 expected goalsJean-Philippe Mateta 11': 0.18 expected goalsDwight McNeil 20': 0.05 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 24': 0.02 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 25': 0.05 expected goalsDan Burn 29': 0.09 expected goalsWilliam Osula 46': 0.27 expected goals, GOALHarvey Barnes 53': 0.08 expected goalsJoelinton 56': 0.07 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 57': 0.16 expected goals, GOALAdam Wharton 62': 0.03 expected goalsJoelinton 65': 0.04 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 67': 0.16 expected goalsDarío Osorio 70': 0.02 expected goalsChris Richards 70': 0.03 expected goalsAxel Disasi 71': 0.06 expected goalsDarío Osorio 84': 0.09 expected goalsDarío Osorio 88': 0.02 expected goalsYéremy Pino 90': 0.04 expected goalsAxel Disasi 92': 0.03 expected goalsEddie Nketiah 98': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001224364860728496MinuteCrystal Palace: 0Crystal Palace, 2': Axel Disasi, 0.17 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 2': Axel Disasi, 0.18 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 2': Jean-Philippe Mateta, 0.49 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 2': Jean-Philippe Mateta, 0.47 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 3': Tyrick Mitchell, 0.01 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 6': Daichi Kamada, 0.08 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 11': Jean-Philippe Mateta, 0.18 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 20': Dwight McNeil, 0.05 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 62': Adam Wharton, 0.03 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 70': Darío Osorio, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 70': Chris Richards, 0.03 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 71': Axel Disasi, 0.06 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 84': Darío Osorio, 0.09 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 88': Darío Osorio, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 90': Yéremy Pino, 0.04 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 92': Axel Disasi, 0.03 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 98': Eddie Nketiah, 0.03 expected goalsCrystal Palace: 1.98Newcastle: 0Newcastle, 8': William Osula, 0.18 expected goalsNewcastle, 24': Harvey Barnes, 0.02 expected goalsNewcastle, 25': Harvey Barnes, 0.05 expected goalsNewcastle, 29': Dan Burn, 0.09 expected goalsNewcastle, 46': William Osula, 0.27 expected goals, GOALNewcastle, 53': Harvey Barnes, 0.08 expected goalsNewcastle, 56': Joelinton, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 57': Harvey Barnes, 0.16 expected goals, GOALNewcastle, 65': Joelinton, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 67': Harvey Barnes, 0.16 expected goalsNewcastle: 1.11Crystal PalaceNewcastleGOAL William Osula 46'GOAL Harvey Barnes 57'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsCrystal PalaceNewcastle
In full1.981.11
Excluding penalties1.981.11
As the rating counts them1.520.92

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromCrystal PalaceNewcastle
Open play0.500.82
of which counter-attacks0.270.00
Set pieces1.490.29
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.130.16
Inside the box1.600.75
Shots1710
Expected goals a shot0.120.11

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
2:42Crystal PalaceAxel Disasi Blocked0.17SetPiecefoot9
2:42Crystal PalaceAxel Disasi Blocked0.18SetPiecefoot8
2:44Crystal PalaceJean-Philippe Mateta Saved0.49SetPiecefoot4
2:45Crystal PalaceJean-Philippe Mateta Saved0.47SetPiecefoot4
3:33Crystal PalaceTyrick Mitchell Blocked0.01FromCornerfoot29
6:29Crystal PalaceDaichi Kamada Missed0.08FastBreakfoot20
8:19NewcastleWilliam Osula Blocked0.18RegularPlayfoot20
11:50Crystal PalaceJean-Philippe Mateta Missed0.18FastBreakfoot25
20:10Crystal PalaceDwight McNeil Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot17
24:26NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.02SetPiecefoot28
25:47NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot20
29:50NewcastleDan Burn Missed0.09SetPiecehead8
46:50NewcastleWilliam Osula Goal0.27RegularPlayfoot6
53:45NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.08ThrowinSetPiecefoot14
56:20NewcastleJoelinton Missed0.07FromCornerhead8
57:18NewcastleHarvey Barnes Goal0.16RegularPlayfoot12
62:57Crystal PalaceAdam Wharton Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot25
65:05NewcastleJoelinton Missed0.04SetPiecefoot18
67:49NewcastleHarvey Barnes Missed0.16RegularPlayfoot22
70:31Crystal PalaceDarío Osorio Saved0.02FromCornerfoot28
70:58Crystal PalaceChris Richards Missed0.03FromCornerhead10
71:31Crystal PalaceAxel Disasi Missed0.06FromCornerhead9
84:08Crystal PalaceDarío Osorio Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot16
88:41Crystal PalaceDarío Osorio Missed0.02FromCornerfoot18
90:42Crystal PalaceYéremy Pino Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot23
92:17Crystal PalaceAxel Disasi Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot23
98:35Crystal PalaceEddie Nketiah Missed0.03FromCornerhead10

Match statistics

Crystal PalaceNewcastle
Corners74
Shots1710
Shots on target42
Shots off target84
Total passes382351
Pass accuracy %69.670.7
Fouls committed1210
Total yellow cards33

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.