Hull 1–1 Brentford

2026-10-25 15:00, MKM Stadium. Half time 1–0. Oliver McBurnie 23'; Dango Ouattara 62'

2026-10-25 15:00
Hull
1–1
Brentford
1.8
expected goals
+0.0 to Hull
1.7

An even match on chances, 1.8 to 1.7 expected goals, and a draw.

12Shots14
0.77Expected goals from open play1.63
0.17From set pieces0.11
0.82From penalties0.00
0.94Excluding penalties1.75
1.18As the rating counts them0.92
1.4Points the chances deserved1.3

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Hull creates 0.81 and allows 1.66; Brentford creates 1.29 and allows 1.29.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Hull win 35 per cent, draw 32, Brentford win 33. Hull deserved 1.4 points and took 1; Brentford deserved 1.3 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Hull attack this way →← Brentford attack this wayIgor Thiago 0': 0.08 expected goalsSepp van den Berg 0': 0.05 expected goalsTim Iroegbunam 5': 0.03 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 7': 0.06 expected goalsAaron Hickey 10': 0.03 expected goalsJohn Egan 21': 0.05 expected goalsOliver McBurnie 23': 0.82 expected goals, GOALDango Ouattara 35': 0.04 expected goalsKevin Schade 43': 0.18 expected goalsSepp van den Berg 46': 0.05 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 51': 0.04 expected goalsMathias Jensen 57': 0.02 expected goalsMikkel Damsgaard 62': 0.09 expected goalsDango Ouattara 62': 0.95 expected goals, GOALMohamed Belloumi 64': 0.11 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 67': 0.02 expected goalsRegan Slater 69': 0.02 expected goalsMohamed-Ali Cho 70': 0.10 expected goalsRegan Slater 70': 0.03 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 73': 0.15 expected goalsDango Ouattara 74': 0.03 expected goalsDango Ouattara 74': 0.01 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 77': 0.06 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 88': 0.42 expected goalsCallum Wilson 89': 0.04 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 92': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteHull: 0Hull, 5': Tim Iroegbunam, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 7': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.06 expected goalsHull, 21': John Egan, 0.05 expected goalsHull, 23': Oliver McBurnie, 0.82 expected goals, GOALHull, 51': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.04 expected goalsHull, 64': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.11 expected goalsHull, 69': Regan Slater, 0.02 expected goalsHull, 70': Mohamed-Ali Cho, 0.10 expected goalsHull, 70': Regan Slater, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 77': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.06 expected goalsHull, 88': Joe Gelhardt, 0.42 expected goalsHull, 92': Joe Gelhardt, 0.03 expected goalsHull: 1.76Brentford: 0Brentford, 0': Igor Thiago, 0.08 expected goalsBrentford, 0': Sepp van den Berg, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 10': Aaron Hickey, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 35': Dango Ouattara, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 43': Kevin Schade, 0.18 expected goalsBrentford, 46': Sepp van den Berg, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 57': Mathias Jensen, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 62': Mikkel Damsgaard, 0.09 expected goalsBrentford, 62': Dango Ouattara, 0.95 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 67': Jaidon Anthony, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford, 73': Jaidon Anthony, 0.15 expected goalsBrentford, 74': Dango Ouattara, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 74': Dango Ouattara, 0.01 expected goalsBrentford, 89': Callum Wilson, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford: 1.75HullBrentfordGOAL Oliver McBurnie 23'GOAL Dango Ouattara 62'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsHullBrentford
In full1.761.75
Excluding penalties0.941.75
As the rating counts them1.180.92

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromHullBrentford
Open play0.771.63
of which counter-attacks0.060.00
Set pieces0.170.11
Penalties0.820.00
Headers0.070.43
Inside the box0.741.66
Shots1214
Expected goals a shot0.150.12

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
0:17BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.08RegularPlayhead9
0:54BrentfordSepp van den Berg Saved0.05ThrowinSetPiecehead9
5:18HullTim Iroegbunam Missed0.03FromCornerhead12
7:43HullMohamed Belloumi Missed0.06DirectFreekickfoot25
10:46BrentfordAaron Hickey Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
21:35HullJohn Egan Missed0.05FromCornerhead9
23:50HullOliver McBurnie Goal0.82Penaltyfoot11
35:46BrentfordDango Ouattara Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot20
43:30BrentfordKevin Schade Blocked0.18RegularPlayfoot11
46:06BrentfordSepp van den Berg Saved0.05ThrowinSetPiecehead9
51:51HullMohamed Belloumi Blocked0.04ThrowinSetPiecefoot14
57:15BrentfordMathias Jensen Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot25
62:01BrentfordMikkel Damsgaard Missed0.09RegularPlayhead9
62:04BrentfordDango Ouattara Goal0.95RegularPlayfoot3
64:17HullMohamed Belloumi Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot12
67:28BrentfordJaidon Anthony Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot23
69:01HullRegan Slater Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28
70:44HullMohamed-Ali Cho Saved0.10RegularPlayfoot13
70:53HullRegan Slater Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
73:35BrentfordJaidon Anthony Saved0.15RegularPlayhead7
74:00BrentfordDango Ouattara Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
74:48BrentfordDango Ouattara Saved0.01FromCornerhead12
77:27HullMohamed Belloumi Missed0.06FastBreakfoot26
88:21HullJoe Gelhardt Missed0.42RegularPlayfoot6
89:14BrentfordCallum Wilson Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot19
92:03HullJoe Gelhardt Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24

Match statistics

HullBrentford
Corners56
Shots1214
Shots on target26
Shots off target83
Total passes327445
Pass accuracy %69.182.2
Fouls committed109
Total yellow cards01

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.