Bournemouth 2–0 Leeds

2026-10-31 16:00, Vitality Stadium. Half time 1–0. Evanilson 30', Amine Adli 93'

2026-10-31 16:00
Bournemouth
2–0
Leeds
1.6
expected goals
+0.6 to Bournemouth
1.0

Bournemouth created more, 1.6 to 1.0 expected goals, and won.

11Shots10
1.50Expected goals from open play0.83
0.05From set pieces0.15
1.55Excluding penalties0.98
0.61As the rating counts them0.50
1.9Points the chances deserved0.8

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Bournemouth creates 1.18 and allows 0.91; Leeds creates 0.97 and allows 0.95.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Bournemouth win 52 per cent, draw 32, Leeds win 16. Bournemouth deserved 1.9 points and took 3; Leeds deserved 0.8 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Bournemouth attack this way →← Leeds attack this wayDominic Calvert-Lewin 10': 0.63 expected goalsHarry Wilson 14': 0.03 expected goalsRyan Christie 16': 0.06 expected goalsAdrien Truffert 30': 0.01 expected goalsEvanilson 30': 0.81 expected goals, GOALJames Hill 39': 0.01 expected goalsMarcus Tavernier 42': 0.04 expected goalsHarry Wilson 48': 0.07 expected goalsMarcus Tavernier 63': 0.04 expected goalsJustin Kluivert 65': 0.06 expected goalsRayan 65': 0.06 expected goalsJames Justin 66': 0.06 expected goalsTyler Adams 70': 0.02 expected goalsLukas Nmecha 72': 0.05 expected goalsSean Longstaff 73': 0.02 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 82': 0.03 expected goalsJean-Mattéo Bahoya 84': 0.01 expected goalsAnton Stach 87': 0.04 expected goalsÁlvaro Rodríguez 90': 0.14 expected goalsAnton Stach 90': 0.04 expected goalsAmine Adli 93': 0.28 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteBournemouth: 0Bournemouth, 16': Ryan Christie, 0.06 expected goalsBournemouth, 30': Adrien Truffert, 0.01 expected goalsBournemouth, 30': Evanilson, 0.81 expected goals, GOALBournemouth, 39': James Hill, 0.01 expected goalsBournemouth, 42': Marcus Tavernier, 0.04 expected goalsBournemouth, 63': Marcus Tavernier, 0.04 expected goalsBournemouth, 65': Justin Kluivert, 0.06 expected goalsBournemouth, 65': Rayan, 0.06 expected goalsBournemouth, 70': Tyler Adams, 0.02 expected goalsBournemouth, 90': Álvaro Rodríguez, 0.14 expected goalsBournemouth, 93': Amine Adli, 0.28 expected goals, GOALBournemouth: 1.55Leeds: 0Leeds, 10': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.63 expected goalsLeeds, 14': Harry Wilson, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 48': Harry Wilson, 0.07 expected goalsLeeds, 66': James Justin, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 72': Lukas Nmecha, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds, 73': Sean Longstaff, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 82': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 84': Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, 0.01 expected goalsLeeds, 87': Anton Stach, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 90': Anton Stach, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds: 0.98BournemouthLeedsGOAL Evanilson 30'GOAL Amine Adli 93'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsBournemouthLeeds
In full1.550.98
Excluding penalties1.550.98
As the rating counts them0.610.50

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromBournemouthLeeds
Open play1.500.83
of which counter-attacks0.140.00
Set pieces0.050.15
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.010.08
Inside the box1.230.72
Shots1110
Expected goals a shot0.140.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
10:54LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Saved0.63RegularPlayfoot5
14:41LeedsHarry Wilson Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
16:46BournemouthRyan Christie Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot19
30:06BournemouthAdrien Truffert Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot29
30:43BournemouthEvanilson Goal0.81RegularPlayfoot8
39:31BournemouthJames Hill Blocked0.01FromCornerhead15
42:00BournemouthMarcus Tavernier Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot19
48:01LeedsHarry Wilson Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot24
63:10BournemouthMarcus Tavernier Saved0.04DirectFreekickfoot27
65:50BournemouthJustin Kluivert Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot14
65:53BournemouthRayan Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot16
66:37LeedsJames Justin Missed0.06RegularPlayhead10
70:46BournemouthTyler Adams Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot29
72:09LeedsLukas Nmecha Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot21
73:01LeedsSean Longstaff Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot28
82:32LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Missed0.03FromCornerhead13
84:26LeedsJean-Mattéo Bahoya Missed0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot25
87:56LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.04DirectFreekickfoot27
90:14BournemouthÁlvaro Rodríguez Saved0.14FastBreakfoot19
90:43LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot19
93:59BournemouthAmine Adli Goal0.28RegularPlayfoot10

Match statistics

BournemouthLeeds
Corners44
Shots1110
Shots on target51
Shots off target37
Total passes409508
Pass accuracy %76.880.7
Fouls committed1215
Total yellow cards22

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.