Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham

2026-10-31 20:00, Villa Park. Half time 1–0. Nicolas Jackson 38'; Zion Suzuki 63' (own goal)

2026-10-31 20:00
Aston Villa
1–1
Fulham
2.4
expected goals
-0.4 to Aston Villa
2.8

Fulham created more, 2.8 to 2.4 expected goals, and drew.

16Shots14
1.18Expected goals from open play1.75
0.41From set pieces1.04
0.78From penalties0.00
1.59Excluding penalties2.79
0.86As the rating counts them1.42
1.1Points the chances deserved1.7

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.12 and allows 0.96; Fulham creates 1.06 and allows 0.92.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Aston Villa win 30 per cent, draw 22, Fulham win 48. Aston Villa deserved 1.1 points and took 1; Fulham deserved 1.7 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Aston Villa attack this way →← Fulham attack this wayAlex Iwobi 4': 0.28 expected goalsLeon Goretzka 6': 0.03 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 6': 0.20 expected goalsLeon Goretzka 11': 0.04 expected goalsJohn McGinn 15': 0.78 expected goalsLeon Goretzka 21': 0.14 expected goalsOscar Bobb 31': 0.37 expected goalsDavid Affengruber 32': 0.02 expected goalsCalvin Bassey 32': 0.11 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 34': 0.04 expected goalsGonzalo García 38': 0.02 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 38': 0.54 expected goals, GOALNicolas Jackson 48': 0.06 expected goalsShea Charles 53': 0.74 expected goalsDavid Affengruber 59': 0.08 expected goalsOscar Bobb 60': 0.03 expected goalsShea Charles 60': 0.03 expected goalsAlysson 61': 0.04 expected goalsIan Maatsen 62': 0.05 expected goalsAlex Iwobi 62': 0.14 expected goalsGonzalo García 63': 0.48 expected goalsAlex Iwobi 74': 0.21 expected goalsDavid Affengruber 76': 0.08 expected goalsIan Maatsen 77': 0.02 expected goalsAntonee Robinson 79': 0.20 expected goalsPau Torres 83': 0.12 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 87': 0.03 expected goalsPau Torres 89': 0.10 expected goalsAlejandro Garnacho 91': 0.13 expected goalsRoss Barkley 93': 0.04 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.0001122334455667788MinuteAston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 6': Leon Goretzka, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 6': Johan Manzambi, 0.20 expected goalsAston Villa, 11': Leon Goretzka, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 15': John McGinn, 0.78 expected goalsAston Villa, 21': Leon Goretzka, 0.14 expected goalsAston Villa, 34': Johan Manzambi, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 38': Nicolas Jackson, 0.54 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 48': Nicolas Jackson, 0.06 expected goalsAston Villa, 61': Alysson, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 62': Ian Maatsen, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 77': Ian Maatsen, 0.02 expected goalsAston Villa, 83': Pau Torres, 0.12 expected goalsAston Villa, 87': Emiliano Buendía, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 89': Pau Torres, 0.10 expected goalsAston Villa, 91': Alejandro Garnacho, 0.13 expected goalsAston Villa, 93': Ross Barkley, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa: 2.37Fulham: 0Fulham, 4': Alex Iwobi, 0.28 expected goalsFulham, 31': Oscar Bobb, 0.37 expected goalsFulham, 32': David Affengruber, 0.02 expected goalsFulham, 32': Calvin Bassey, 0.11 expected goalsFulham, 38': Gonzalo García, 0.02 expected goalsFulham, 53': Shea Charles, 0.74 expected goalsFulham, 59': David Affengruber, 0.08 expected goalsFulham, 60': Oscar Bobb, 0.03 expected goalsFulham, 60': Shea Charles, 0.03 expected goalsFulham, 62': Alex Iwobi, 0.14 expected goalsFulham, 63': Gonzalo García, 0.48 expected goalsFulham, 74': Alex Iwobi, 0.21 expected goalsFulham, 76': David Affengruber, 0.08 expected goalsFulham, 79': Antonee Robinson, 0.20 expected goalsFulham: 2.79Aston VillaFulhamGOAL Nicolas Jackson 38'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsAston VillaFulham
In full2.372.79
Excluding penalties1.592.79
As the rating counts them0.861.42

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromAston VillaFulham
Open play1.181.75
of which counter-attacks0.000.86
Set pieces0.411.04
Penalties0.780.00
Headers0.330.32
Inside the box1.352.76
Shots1614
Expected goals a shot0.150.20

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
4:41FulhamAlex Iwobi Missed0.28FastBreakfoot11
6:21Aston VillaLeon Goretzka Missed0.03FromCornerhead10
6:52Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.20RegularPlayfoot17
11:39Aston VillaLeon Goretzka Blocked0.04FromCornerhead9
15:13Aston VillaJohn McGinn Post0.78Penaltyfoot11
21:55Aston VillaLeon Goretzka Blocked0.14RegularPlayfoot23
31:11FulhamOscar Bobb Saved0.37FastBreakfoot11
32:00FulhamDavid Affengruber Missed0.02FromCornerhead12
32:03FulhamCalvin Bassey Missed0.11FromCornerfoot9
34:49Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot25
38:09FulhamGonzalo García Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot25
38:49Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Goal0.54RegularPlayfoot10
48:02Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot20
53:30FulhamShea Charles Saved0.74FromCornerfoot2
59:17FulhamDavid Affengruber Missed0.08FromCornerhead9
60:37FulhamOscar Bobb Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot20
60:40FulhamShea Charles Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot20
61:21Aston VillaAlysson Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot12
62:00Aston VillaIan Maatsen Missed0.05FromCornerfoot18
62:58FulhamAlex Iwobi Saved0.14RegularPlayhead7
63:00FulhamGonzalo García Blocked0.48RegularPlayfoot5
74:05FulhamAlex Iwobi Blocked0.21FastBreakfoot13
76:34FulhamDavid Affengruber Saved0.08SetPiecehead9
77:47Aston VillaIan Maatsen Blocked0.02SetPiecefoot22
79:25FulhamAntonee Robinson Saved0.20RegularPlayfoot12
83:31Aston VillaPau Torres Missed0.12FromCornerhead8
87:58Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Missed0.03RegularPlayhead12
89:43Aston VillaPau Torres Missed0.10SetPiecehead9
91:33Aston VillaAlejandro Garnacho Blocked0.13RegularPlayfoot16
93:52Aston VillaRoss Barkley Blocked0.04SetPiecefoot16

Match statistics

Aston VillaFulham
Corners77
Shots1614
Shots on target35
Shots off target76
Total passes434536
Pass accuracy %85.988.4
Fouls committed712
Total yellow cards13

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.