Brentford 2–0 Nottingham Forest

2026-10-31 16:00, Gtech Community Stadium. Half time 1–0. Nikola Milenkovic 29' (own goal), Igor Thiago 75'

2026-10-31 16:00
Brentford
2–0
Nottingham Forest
0.6
expected goals
-0.7 to Brentford
1.3

Brentford won with 0.6 expected goals to 1.3: the result went against the performance.

7Shots15
0.45Expected goals from open play1.13
0.19From set pieces0.18
0.64Excluding penalties1.31
0.37As the rating counts them0.85
0.8Points the chances deserved1.9

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brentford creates 1.14 and allows 0.98; Nottingham Forest creates 1.11 and allows 0.95.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Brentford win 17 per cent, draw 30, Nottingham Forest win 53. Brentford deserved 0.8 points and took 3; Nottingham Forest deserved 1.9 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Brentford attack this way →← Nottingham Forest attack this wayMamadou Sangaré 3': 0.03 expected goalsXaver Schlager 6': 0.03 expected goalsJames McAtee 9': 0.02 expected goalsLiam Delap 9': 0.23 expected goalsMurillo 12': 0.05 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 17': 0.02 expected goalsIgor Thiago 19': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 20': 0.13 expected goalsJames McAtee 23': 0.07 expected goalsMamadou Sangaré 26': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 32': 0.02 expected goalsMathias Jensen 37': 0.05 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 43': 0.07 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 46': 0.09 expected goalsRyan Yates 53': 0.28 expected goalsDan Ndoye 56': 0.15 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 60': 0.09 expected goalsArnaud Kalimuendo 64': 0.03 expected goalsIgor Thiago 75': 0.41 expected goals, GOALJames McAtee 78': 0.03 expected goalsMikkel Damsgaard 87': 0.05 expected goalsCallum Wilson 92': 0.02 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteBrentford: 0Brentford, 3': Mamadou Sangaré, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 19': Igor Thiago, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 26': Mamadou Sangaré, 0.03 expected goalsBrentford, 37': Mathias Jensen, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 75': Igor Thiago, 0.41 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 87': Mikkel Damsgaard, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 92': Callum Wilson, 0.02 expected goalsBrentford: 0.64Nottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 6': Xaver Schlager, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 9': James McAtee, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 9': Liam Delap, 0.23 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 12': Murillo, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 17': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 20': Liam Delap, 0.13 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 23': James McAtee, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 32': Liam Delap, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 43': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 46': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 53': Ryan Yates, 0.28 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 56': Dan Ndoye, 0.15 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 60': Daniel Muñoz, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 64': Arnaud Kalimuendo, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 78': James McAtee, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 1.31BrentfordNottingham ForestGOAL Igor Thiago 75'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsBrentfordNottingham Forest
In full0.641.31
Excluding penalties0.641.31
As the rating counts them0.370.85

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromBrentfordNottingham Forest
Open play0.451.13
of which counter-attacks0.450.00
Set pieces0.190.18
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.020.28
Inside the box0.471.14
Shots715
Expected goals a shot0.090.09

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
3:47BrentfordMamadou Sangaré Missed0.03FromCornerfoot15
6:52Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot26
9:09Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot29
9:12Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.23RegularPlayfoot10
12:10Nottingham ForestMurillo Missed0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot19
17:50Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot27
19:20BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.03FastBreakfoot21
20:22Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.13RegularPlayfoot14
23:48Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Missed0.07ThrowinSetPiecefoot18
26:03BrentfordMamadou Sangaré Missed0.03FromCornerfoot19
32:14Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot26
37:42BrentfordMathias Jensen Post0.05DirectFreekickfoot25
43:44Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.07SetPiecefoot15
46:30Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot13
53:40Nottingham ForestRyan Yates Missed0.28RegularPlayhead7
56:49Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Blocked0.15RegularPlayfoot24
60:25Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot20
64:35Nottingham ForestArnaud Kalimuendo Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot18
75:12BrentfordIgor Thiago Goal0.41FastBreakfoot10
78:16Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
87:31BrentfordMikkel Damsgaard Blocked0.05SetPiecefoot19
92:20BrentfordCallum Wilson Missed0.02SetPiecehead15

Match statistics

BrentfordNottingham Forest
Corners34
Shots715
Shots on target11
Shots off target58
Total passes339476
Pass accuracy %71.176.7
Fouls committed617
Total yellow cards13

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.