Chelsea 2–0 Man Utd

2026-10-31 12:30, Stamford Bridge. Half time 0–0. Morgan Rogers 49', Cole Palmer 63'

2026-10-31 12:30
Chelsea
2–0
Man Utd
2.6
expected goals
+1.3 to Chelsea
1.3

Chelsea created more, 2.6 to 1.3 expected goals, and won.

18Shots12
1.61Expected goals from open play1.27
0.20From set pieces0.06
0.78From penalties0.00
1.81Excluding penalties1.33
1.06As the rating counts them0.64
2.2Points the chances deserved0.6

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.32 and allows 0.90; Man Utd creates 1.36 and allows 0.90.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Chelsea win 68 per cent, draw 19, Man Utd win 13. Chelsea deserved 2.2 points and took 3; Man Utd deserved 0.6 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Chelsea attack this way →← Man Utd attack this wayEstêvão 7': 0.02 expected goalsAndrey Santos 8': 0.04 expected goalsCarlos Baleba 13': 0.01 expected goalsPedro Neto 14': 0.03 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 18': 0.22 expected goalsJosh Acheampong 21': 0.02 expected goalsWesley Fofana 21': 0.05 expected goalsAmad Diallo 29': 0.03 expected goalsMatheus Cunha 29': 0.29 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 30': 0.02 expected goalsAmad Diallo 31': 0.05 expected goalsAmad Diallo 37': 0.12 expected goalsWesley Fofana 41': 0.08 expected goalsAmad Diallo 42': 0.48 expected goalsPedro Neto 43': 0.28 expected goalsEstêvão 44': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 49': 0.31 expected goals, GOALPedro Neto 50': 0.25 expected goalsCole Palmer 63': 0.78 expected goals, GOALEstêvão 66': 0.03 expected goalsJosh Acheampong 68': 0.02 expected goalsEstêvão 78': 0.08 expected goalsCole Palmer 79': 0.05 expected goalsJoshua Zirkzee 83': 0.02 expected goalsEstêvão 83': 0.04 expected goalsEstêvão 84': 0.07 expected goalsJoshua Zirkzee 91': 0.02 expected goalsBryan Mbeumo 91': 0.02 expected goalsCole Palmer 92': 0.10 expected goalsValentín Barco 98': 0.36 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.0001224364860728496MinuteChelsea: 0Chelsea, 7': Estêvão, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 14': Pedro Neto, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 21': Josh Acheampong, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 21': Wesley Fofana, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 41': Wesley Fofana, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 43': Pedro Neto, 0.28 expected goalsChelsea, 44': Estêvão, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 49': Morgan Rogers, 0.31 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 50': Pedro Neto, 0.25 expected goalsChelsea, 63': Cole Palmer, 0.78 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 66': Estêvão, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 68': Josh Acheampong, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 78': Estêvão, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 79': Cole Palmer, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 83': Estêvão, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 84': Estêvão, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 92': Cole Palmer, 0.10 expected goalsChelsea, 98': Valentín Barco, 0.36 expected goalsChelsea: 2.59Man Utd: 0Man Utd, 8': Andrey Santos, 0.04 expected goalsMan Utd, 13': Carlos Baleba, 0.01 expected goalsMan Utd, 18': Bruno Fernandes, 0.22 expected goalsMan Utd, 29': Amad Diallo, 0.03 expected goalsMan Utd, 29': Matheus Cunha, 0.29 expected goalsMan Utd, 30': Bruno Fernandes, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 31': Amad Diallo, 0.05 expected goalsMan Utd, 37': Amad Diallo, 0.12 expected goalsMan Utd, 42': Amad Diallo, 0.48 expected goalsMan Utd, 83': Joshua Zirkzee, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 91': Joshua Zirkzee, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 91': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd: 1.33ChelseaMan UtdGOAL Morgan Rogers 49'GOAL Cole Palmer 63'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsChelseaMan Utd
In full2.591.33
Excluding penalties1.811.33
As the rating counts them1.060.64

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromChelseaMan Utd
Open play1.611.27
of which counter-attacks0.320.70
Set pieces0.200.06
Penalties0.780.00
Headers0.380.00
Inside the box1.621.21
Shots1812
Expected goals a shot0.140.11

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
7:41ChelseaEstêvão Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot29
8:30Man UtdAndrey Santos Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot23
13:53Man UtdCarlos Baleba Blocked0.01FromCornerfoot26
14:16ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.03FastBreakfoot21
18:27Man UtdBruno Fernandes Missed0.22FastBreakfoot13
21:13ChelseaJosh Acheampong Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot19
21:51ChelseaWesley Fofana Saved0.05FromCornerhead9
29:31Man UtdAmad Diallo Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot23
29:36Man UtdMatheus Cunha Saved0.29RegularPlayfoot8
30:21Man UtdBruno Fernandes Blocked0.02FromCornerfoot17
31:33Man UtdAmad Diallo Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot14
37:04Man UtdAmad Diallo Saved0.12RegularPlayfoot13
41:18ChelseaWesley Fofana Blocked0.08FromCornerhead8
42:07Man UtdAmad Diallo Missed0.48FastBreakfoot14
43:08ChelseaPedro Neto Missed0.28RegularPlayfoot15
44:31ChelseaEstêvão Saved0.03FastBreakfoot18
49:03ChelseaMorgan Rogers Goal0.31RegularPlayfoot9
50:41ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.25FastBreakhead8
63:07ChelseaCole Palmer Goal0.78Penaltyfoot11
66:40ChelseaEstêvão Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot23
68:15ChelseaJosh Acheampong Saved0.02FromCornerfoot26
78:58ChelseaEstêvão Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot16
79:44ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.05FromCornerfoot20
83:09Man UtdJoshua Zirkzee Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot27
83:36ChelseaEstêvão Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot24
84:54ChelseaEstêvão Saved0.07RegularPlayfoot20
91:22Man UtdJoshua Zirkzee Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot18
91:56Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Saved0.02FromCornerfoot22
92:47ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.10RegularPlayfoot15
98:39ChelseaValentín Barco Missed0.36RegularPlayfoot8

Match statistics

ChelseaMan Utd
Corners87
Shots1812
Shots on target95
Shots off target64
Total passes542379
Pass accuracy %88.477.3
Fouls committed820
Total yellow cards15

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.