Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal

2026-11-01 16:30, Anfield. Half time 0–1. Kai Havertz 15'

2026-11-01 16:30
Liverpool
0–1
Arsenal
1.3
expected goals
+0.5 to Liverpool
0.8

Arsenal won with 0.8 expected goals to 1.3: the result went against the performance.

17Shots10
1.07Expected goals from open play0.75
0.19From set pieces0.04
1.26Excluding penalties0.78
1.16As the rating counts them0.43
1.7Points the chances deserved1.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Liverpool creates 1.39 and allows 0.86; Arsenal creates 1.48 and allows 0.66.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Liverpool win 47 per cent, draw 31, Arsenal win 22. Liverpool deserved 1.7 points and took 0; Arsenal deserved 1.0 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Liverpool attack this way →← Arsenal attack this wayDeclan Rice 14': 0.02 expected goalsKai Havertz 15': 0.50 expected goals, GOALBruno Guimarães 23': 0.04 expected goalsDeclan Rice 24': 0.06 expected goalsCody Gakpo 26': 0.09 expected goalsVirgil van Dijk 27': 0.03 expected goalsRonald Araujo 27': 0.02 expected goalsMilos Kerkez 30': 0.11 expected goalsAlexis Mac Allister 32': 0.02 expected goalsAlexander Isak 35': 0.05 expected goalsFlorian Wirtz 38': 0.05 expected goalsAlexis Mac Allister 42': 0.12 expected goalsDeclan Rice 45': 0.04 expected goalsFlorian Wirtz 53': 0.11 expected goalsBruno Guimarães 54': 0.03 expected goalsAlexander Isak 55': 0.04 expected goalsNoni Madueke 64': 0.02 expected goalsFlorian Wirtz 65': 0.19 expected goalsJurriën Timber 70': 0.02 expected goalsChristos Tzolis 72': 0.03 expected goalsMyles Lewis-Skelly 73': 0.04 expected goalsVirgil van Dijk 74': 0.01 expected goalsRonald Araujo 76': 0.22 expected goalsRio Ngumoha 86': 0.02 expected goalsVíctor Muñoz 90': 0.03 expected goalsRio Ngumoha 90': 0.05 expected goalsBradley Barcola 91': 0.09 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteLiverpool: 0Liverpool, 26': Cody Gakpo, 0.09 expected goalsLiverpool, 27': Virgil van Dijk, 0.03 expected goalsLiverpool, 27': Ronald Araujo, 0.02 expected goalsLiverpool, 30': Milos Kerkez, 0.11 expected goalsLiverpool, 32': Alexis Mac Allister, 0.02 expected goalsLiverpool, 35': Alexander Isak, 0.05 expected goalsLiverpool, 38': Florian Wirtz, 0.05 expected goalsLiverpool, 42': Alexis Mac Allister, 0.12 expected goalsLiverpool, 53': Florian Wirtz, 0.11 expected goalsLiverpool, 55': Alexander Isak, 0.04 expected goalsLiverpool, 65': Florian Wirtz, 0.19 expected goalsLiverpool, 74': Virgil van Dijk, 0.01 expected goalsLiverpool, 76': Ronald Araujo, 0.22 expected goalsLiverpool, 86': Rio Ngumoha, 0.02 expected goalsLiverpool, 90': Víctor Muñoz, 0.03 expected goalsLiverpool, 90': Rio Ngumoha, 0.05 expected goalsLiverpool, 91': Bradley Barcola, 0.09 expected goalsLiverpool: 1.26Arsenal: 0Arsenal, 14': Declan Rice, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 15': Kai Havertz, 0.50 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 23': Bruno Guimarães, 0.04 expected goalsArsenal, 24': Declan Rice, 0.06 expected goalsArsenal, 45': Declan Rice, 0.04 expected goalsArsenal, 54': Bruno Guimarães, 0.03 expected goalsArsenal, 64': Noni Madueke, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 70': Jurriën Timber, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 72': Christos Tzolis, 0.03 expected goalsArsenal, 73': Myles Lewis-Skelly, 0.04 expected goalsArsenal: 0.78LiverpoolArsenalGOAL Kai Havertz 15'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsLiverpoolArsenal
In full1.260.78
Excluding penalties1.260.78
As the rating counts them1.160.43

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromLiverpoolArsenal
Open play1.070.75
of which counter-attacks0.300.00
Set pieces0.190.04
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.180.00
Inside the box1.180.69
Shots1710
Expected goals a shot0.070.08

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
14:47ArsenalDeclan Rice Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28
15:30ArsenalKai Havertz Goal0.50RegularPlayfoot5
23:28ArsenalBruno Guimarães Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot19
24:48ArsenalDeclan Rice Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot18
26:08LiverpoolCody Gakpo Blocked0.09SetPiecefoot14
27:00LiverpoolVirgil van Dijk Missed0.03FromCornerhead10
27:58LiverpoolRonald Araujo Blocked0.02FromCornerhead14
30:20LiverpoolMilos Kerkez Missed0.11FastBreakfoot13
32:48LiverpoolAlexis Mac Allister Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28
35:54LiverpoolAlexander Isak Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot17
38:47LiverpoolFlorian Wirtz Post0.05DirectFreekickfoot27
42:06LiverpoolAlexis Mac Allister Missed0.12RegularPlayhead8
45:43ArsenalDeclan Rice Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot23
53:02LiverpoolFlorian Wirtz Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot14
54:46ArsenalBruno Guimarães Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot22
55:24LiverpoolAlexander Isak Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot17
64:43ArsenalNoni Madueke Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot27
65:55LiverpoolFlorian Wirtz Blocked0.19FastBreakfoot14
70:54ArsenalJurriën Timber Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot28
72:51ArsenalChristos Tzolis Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot19
73:36ArsenalMyles Lewis-Skelly Missed0.04FromCornerfoot10
74:42LiverpoolVirgil van Dijk Blocked0.01RegularPlayfoot29
76:36LiverpoolRonald Araujo Blocked0.22RegularPlayfoot7
86:16LiverpoolRio Ngumoha Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot22
90:02LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot18
90:06LiverpoolRio Ngumoha Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot17
91:46LiverpoolBradley Barcola Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot13

Match statistics

LiverpoolArsenal
Corners74
Shots1710
Shots on target03
Shots off target84
Total passes461370
Pass accuracy %81.872.7
Fouls committed1810
Total yellow cards44

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.