Man City 0–1 Brighton

2026-10-31 16:00, Etihad Stadium. Half time 0–1. Yasin Ayari 10'

2026-10-31 16:00
Man City
0–1
Brighton
1.8
expected goals
+0.6 to Man City
1.2

Brighton won with 1.2 expected goals to 1.8: the result went against the performance.

21Shots7
1.39Expected goals from open play0.57
0.44From set pieces0.65
1.83Excluding penalties1.22
1.77As the rating counts them0.50
1.8Points the chances deserved1.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man City creates 1.71 and allows 0.75; Brighton creates 1.27 and allows 0.85.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Man City win 51 per cent, draw 26, Brighton win 24. Man City deserved 1.8 points and took 0; Brighton deserved 1.0 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Man City attack this way →← Brighton attack this wayJérémy Doku 8': 0.06 expected goalsYasin Ayari 10': 0.65 expected goals, GOALJosko Gvardiol 15': 0.03 expected goalsDiego Gómez 16': 0.04 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 21': 0.19 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 24': 0.06 expected goalsErling Haaland 29': 0.13 expected goalsDiego Gómez 33': 0.04 expected goalsErling Haaland 41': 0.16 expected goalsEnzo Fernández 43': 0.03 expected goalsMaxim De Cuyper 47': 0.14 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 51': 0.03 expected goalsMaxim De Cuyper 53': 0.10 expected goalsEnzo Fernández 56': 0.11 expected goalsJérémy Doku 58': 0.11 expected goalsRayan Cherki 58': 0.06 expected goalsMatheus Nunes 61': 0.14 expected goalsErling Haaland 61': 0.09 expected goalsErling Haaland 61': 0.11 expected goalsNico O'Reilly 69': 0.04 expected goalsIliman Ndiaye 75': 0.16 expected goalsAllan 81': 0.04 expected goalsGeorginio Rutter 85': 0.03 expected goalsJack Hinshelwood 87': 0.23 expected goalsAbdukodir Khusanov 88': 0.06 expected goalsNico O'Reilly 88': 0.14 expected goalsRayan Cherki 91': 0.03 expected goalsJérémy Doku 93': 0.05 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteMan City: 0Man City, 8': Jérémy Doku, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 15': Josko Gvardiol, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 21': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.19 expected goalsMan City, 24': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 29': Erling Haaland, 0.13 expected goalsMan City, 41': Erling Haaland, 0.16 expected goalsMan City, 43': Enzo Fernández, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 51': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 56': Enzo Fernández, 0.11 expected goalsMan City, 58': Jérémy Doku, 0.11 expected goalsMan City, 58': Rayan Cherki, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 61': Matheus Nunes, 0.14 expected goalsMan City, 61': Erling Haaland, 0.09 expected goalsMan City, 61': Erling Haaland, 0.11 expected goalsMan City, 69': Nico O'Reilly, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 75': Iliman Ndiaye, 0.16 expected goalsMan City, 81': Allan, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 88': Abdukodir Khusanov, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 88': Nico O'Reilly, 0.14 expected goalsMan City, 91': Rayan Cherki, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 93': Jérémy Doku, 0.05 expected goalsMan City: 1.83Brighton: 0Brighton, 10': Yasin Ayari, 0.65 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 16': Diego Gómez, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 33': Diego Gómez, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 47': Maxim De Cuyper, 0.14 expected goalsBrighton, 53': Maxim De Cuyper, 0.10 expected goalsBrighton, 85': Georginio Rutter, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 87': Jack Hinshelwood, 0.23 expected goalsBrighton: 1.22Man CityBrightonGOAL Yasin Ayari 10'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsMan CityBrighton
In full1.831.22
Excluding penalties1.831.22
As the rating counts them1.770.50

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromMan CityBrighton
Open play1.390.57
of which counter-attacks0.190.37
Set pieces0.440.65
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.510.10
Inside the box1.751.18
Shots217
Expected goals a shot0.090.17

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
8:17Man CityJérémy Doku Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot19
10:06BrightonYasin Ayari Goal0.65SetPiecefoot7
15:33Man CityJosko Gvardiol Missed0.03FromCornerhead11
16:42BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.04FastBreakfoot60
21:19Man CityIliman Ndiaye Missed0.19FromCornerhead7
24:53Man CityIliman Ndiaye Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot17
29:18Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.13RegularPlayfoot10
33:37BrightonDiego Gómez Saved0.04RegularPlayfoot15
41:03Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.16FastBreakfoot14
43:00Man CityEnzo Fernández Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot20
47:11BrightonMaxim De Cuyper Missed0.14RegularPlayfoot14
51:49Man CityIliman Ndiaye Saved0.03FastBreakfoot18
53:08BrightonMaxim De Cuyper Saved0.10FastBreakhead10
56:59Man CityEnzo Fernández Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot14
58:15Man CityJérémy Doku Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot15
58:17Man CityRayan Cherki Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot16
61:24Man CityMatheus Nunes Saved0.14RegularPlayfoot12
61:27Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot15
61:59Man CityErling Haaland Saved0.11FromCornerhead6
69:39Man CityNico O'Reilly Missed0.04FromCornerhead10
75:54Man CityIliman Ndiaye Post0.16RegularPlayfoot9
81:28Man CityAllan Blocked0.04FromCornerfoot17
85:57BrightonGeorginio Rutter Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot19
87:24BrightonJack Hinshelwood Missed0.23FastBreakfoot13
88:22Man CityAbdukodir Khusanov Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot14
88:24Man CityNico O'Reilly Missed0.14RegularPlayhead8
91:28Man CityRayan Cherki Blocked0.03SetPiecefoot24
93:49Man CityJérémy Doku Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot15

Match statistics

Man CityBrighton
Corners82
Shots217
Shots on target63
Shots off target73
Total passes597362
Pass accuracy %84.377.3
Fouls committed913
Total yellow cards03

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.