What each side did, valued by the chances it made, beside the score.
Arsenal created more, 2.0 to 0.6 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Arsenal creates 1.66 and allows 0.89; Leeds creates 1.11 and allows 1.21.
Aston Villa created more, 1.9 to 1.4 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.21 and allows 1.24; Brentford creates 1.29 and allows 1.23.
Chelsea won with 1.1 expected goals to 1.6: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.47 and allows 1.23; Bournemouth creates 1.26 and allows 1.24.
Ipswich won a match that was close on chances, 1.3 to 1.2 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Ipswich creates 0.96 and allows 1.44; Fulham creates 1.11 and allows 1.24.
Brighton won a match that was close on chances, 1.0 to 0.7 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Sunderland creates 0.96 and allows 1.32; Brighton creates 1.35 and allows 1.18.
Tottenham created more, 2.0 to 0.7 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man Utd creates 1.49 and allows 1.18; Tottenham creates 1.18 and allows 1.32.
Crystal Palace won with 1.8 expected goals to 2.9: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Crystal Palace creates 1.16 and allows 1.30; Nottingham Forest creates 1.14 and allows 1.21.
An even match on chances, 1.7 to 1.5 expected goals, and a draw.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Hull creates 0.80 and allows 1.64; Everton creates 1.05 and allows 1.20.
Man City won a match that was close on chances, 1.2 to 1.5 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Liverpool creates 1.57 and allows 1.13; Man City creates 1.83 and allows 1.02.
Coventry won with 2.0 expected goals to 2.4: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Coventry creates 0.94 and allows 1.39; Newcastle creates 1.30 and allows 1.29.
Result and performance disagreed most: Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth. Chelsea won with 1.1 expected goals to 1.6: the result went against the performance.
Result and performance disagreed most: Coventry 4–1 Newcastle. Coventry won with 2.0 expected goals to 2.4: the result went against the performance.
Best attacking performance: Nottingham Forest, 2.9 expected goals at Crystal Palace.
Best defensive performance: Arsenal, 0.6 expected goals allowed against Leeds.
Each team's projected points and chances before the round and now, from the rest of the season played out 10,000 times with the ratings as they stood each time. The teams whose projected points rose most come first. The whole projected finish.
| Team | Projected pts | Likely pos | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 38.1 → 42.3 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 2% | 38% → 28% |
| Man Utd | 56.1 → 59.4 | 6th → 3rd | 2% → 3% | 19% → 29% | 6% → 4% |
| Ipswich | 39.2 → 42.3 | 17th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 2% | 33% → 28% |
| Chelsea | 58.9 → 61.3 | 4th → 4th | 3% → 5% | 25% → 35% | 3% → 6% |
| Hull | 30.9 → 33.1 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 0% | 65% → 57% |
| Man City | 79.6 → 81.7 | 1st → 1st | 39% → 46% | 84% → 85% | 0% → 0% |
| Aston Villa | 48.5 → 50.0 | 14th → 10th | 0% → 1% | 8% → 10% | 13% → 13% |
| Brentford | 55.6 → 56.3 | 6th → 5th | 2% → 3% | 19% → 21% | 5% → 6% |
| Arsenal | 77.5 → 78.1 | 1st → 1st | 31% → 30% | 80% → 83% | 0% → 0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 48.2 → 48.2 | 10th → 13th | 0% → 0% | 7% → 8% | 15% → 15% |
| Brighton | 60.9 → 60.4 | 4th → 4th | 4% → 3% | 32% → 31% | 2% → 3% |
| Fulham | 44.3 → 43.6 | 19th → 16th | 0% → 0% | 5% → 3% | 23% → 21% |
| Tottenham | 44.5 → 43.1 | 16th → 17th | 0% → 0% | 4% → 2% | 22% → 22% |
| Leeds | 54.6 → 53.1 | 7th → 9th | 1% → 0% | 15% → 12% | 6% → 7% |
| Everton | 51.0 → 49.3 | 9th → 15th | 0% → 1% | 10% → 8% | 11% → 11% |
| Crystal Palace | 50.1 → 47.7 | 11th → 15th | 0% → 1% | 7% → 7% | 9% → 15% |
| Sunderland | 41.8 → 39.3 | 20th → 17th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 1% | 28% → 32% |
| Bournemouth | 51.9 → 49.2 | 13th → 7th | 1% → 0% | 12% → 8% | 8% → 14% |
| Newcastle | 53.1 → 50.4 | 7th → 10th | 1% → 1% | 15% → 12% | 10% → 15% |
| Liverpool | 68.0 → 63.9 | 2nd → 3rd | 14% → 5% | 53% → 42% | 1% → 1% |
Each team's rating now, in expected goals a match as the rating counts them, against an average opponent: what it creates and what it allows. Then the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two ratings, by the projection the projected finish is built from.
Market: the bookmaker's price now (Bet365, from football-data.co.uk's upcoming fixtures), the bookmaker's margin taken out, beside ours. Where the two differ is where the projection and the market disagree; the forecasts page says how that has gone.
| Kickoff | Home | creates | allows | Away | creates | allows | Home win | Draw | Away win | Market: home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 11:30 | Everton | 1.06 | 1.21 | Chelsea | 1.49 | 1.23 | 33% | 24% | 43% | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 | Brentford | 1.29 | 1.25 | Liverpool | 1.54 | 1.14 | 33% | 23% | 43% | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 | Fulham | 1.10 | 1.25 | Hull | 0.81 | 1.63 | 64% | 20% | 16% | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 | Man City | 1.83 | 1.01 | Ipswich | 0.97 | 1.43 | 78% | 14% | 8% | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| 2026-10-17 16:30 | Newcastle | 1.30 | 1.31 | Aston Villa | 1.22 | 1.24 | 43% | 24% | 33% | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 | Bournemouth | 1.25 | 1.27 | Sunderland | 0.95 | 1.32 | 52% | 24% | 24% | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 | Brighton | 1.35 | 1.17 | Crystal Palace | 1.18 | 1.31 | 52% | 23% | 25% | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 | Leeds | 1.10 | 1.22 | Man Utd | 1.48 | 1.18 | 32% | 24% | 44% | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| 2026-10-18 15:30 | Nottingham Forest | 1.16 | 1.23 | Arsenal | 1.66 | 0.89 | 21% | 23% | 57% | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 | Tottenham | 1.18 | 1.30 | Coventry | 0.96 | 1.39 | 51% | 23% | 25% | 67% | 20% | 13% |