What each side did, valued by the chances it made, beside the score.
Nottingham Forest created more, 2.8 to 0.7 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Ipswich creates 0.84 and allows 1.13; Nottingham Forest creates 1.10 and allows 0.96.
Aston Villa won with 1.3 expected goals to 1.7: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.12 and allows 0.96; Man City creates 1.71 and allows 0.75.
Arsenal created more, 2.2 to 1.1 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Arsenal creates 1.46 and allows 0.66; Everton creates 0.98 and allows 0.97.
Fulham won a match that was close on chances, 0.6 to 0.7 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Coventry creates 0.83 and allows 1.18; Fulham creates 1.07 and allows 0.93.
Tottenham won a match that was close on chances, 0.9 to 1.0 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.35 and allows 0.88; Tottenham creates 1.11 and allows 0.94.
Newcastle won with 0.8 expected goals to 1.9: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Crystal Palace creates 1.04 and allows 1.04; Newcastle creates 1.12 and allows 1.00.
An even match on chances, 1.4 to 1.3 expected goals, and a draw.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Hull creates 0.65 and allows 1.30; Brentford creates 1.14 and allows 0.98.
Liverpool won a match that was close on chances, 1.1 to 1.1 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Liverpool creates 1.39 and allows 0.85; Brighton creates 1.27 and allows 0.85.
Bournemouth won a match that was close on chances, 0.9 to 0.9 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man Utd creates 1.37 and allows 0.90; Bournemouth creates 1.18 and allows 0.91.
Sunderland created more, 0.9 to 0.4 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Sunderland creates 0.91 and allows 1.01; Leeds creates 0.98 and allows 0.96.
Result and performance disagreed most: Crystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle. Newcastle won with 0.8 expected goals to 1.9: the result went against the performance.
Result and performance disagreed most: Man Utd 0–3 Bournemouth. Bournemouth won a match that was close on chances, 0.9 to 0.9 expected goals.
Best attacking performance: Nottingham Forest, 2.8 expected goals at Ipswich.
Best defensive performance: Sunderland, 0.4 expected goals allowed against Leeds.
Each team's projected points and chances before the round and now, from the rest of the season played out 10,000 times with the ratings as they stood each time. The teams whose projected points rose most come first. The whole projected finish.
| Team | Projected pts | Likely pos | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 51.0 → 54.2 | 9th → 7th | 1% → 1% | 9% → 15% | 7% → 5% |
| Tottenham | 49.2 → 52.1 | 9th → 8th | 0% → 0% | 5% → 11% | 10% → 6% |
| Newcastle | 48.2 → 51.0 | 14th → 9th | 0% → 0% | 5% → 9% | 13% → 9% |
| Arsenal | 76.6 → 78.5 | 2nd → 1st | 24% → 38% | 83% → 88% | 0% → 0% |
| Aston Villa | 50.7 → 52.3 | 7th → 7th | 0% → 0% | 11% → 11% | 12% → 8% |
| Leeds | 49.4 → 50.8 | 11th → 10th | 0% → 0% | 7% → 7% | 10% → 5% |
| Hull | 31.6 → 33.0 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 0% | 64% → 61% |
| Sunderland | 41.0 → 42.0 | 19th → 18th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 1% | 28% → 27% |
| Brentford | 53.7 → 54.1 | 6th → 8th | 1% → 1% | 13% → 14% | 5% → 5% |
| Chelsea | 61.7 → 61.2 | 4th → 4th | 4% → 3% | 35% → 33% | 2% → 1% |
| Liverpool | 65.6 → 65.0 | 3rd → 3rd | 5% → 6% | 47% → 46% | 0% → 0% |
| Fulham | 46.1 → 45.3 | 15th → 16th | 0% → 0% | 5% → 3% | 17% → 18% |
| Everton | 47.7 → 46.8 | 16th → 15th | 1% → 0% | 8% → 4% | 14% → 15% |
| Nottingham Forest | 46.5 → 45.4 | 17th → 16th | 0% → 0% | 6% → 5% | 19% → 19% |
| Crystal Palace | 45.8 → 44.5 | 17th → 16th | 0% → 0% | 4% → 3% | 17% → 20% |
| Coventry | 37.2 → 35.3 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 1% | 45% → 53% |
| Brighton | 65.4 → 63.4 | 3rd → 3rd | 6% → 5% | 47% → 43% | 0% → 1% |
| Ipswich | 41.1 → 38.7 | 20th → 19th | 0% → 0% | 2% → 1% | 32% → 40% |
| Man Utd | 56.4 → 53.5 | 5th → 6th | 1% → 1% | 21% → 17% | 4% → 7% |
| Man City | 82.8 → 79.4 | 1st → 1st | 55% → 43% | 92% → 87% | 0% → 0% |
Each team's rating now, in expected goals a match as the rating counts them, against an average opponent: what it creates and what it allows. Then the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two ratings, by the projection the projected finish is built from.
| Kickoff | Home | creates | allows | Away | creates | allows | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 12:30 | Chelsea | 1.32 | 0.89 | Man Utd | 1.35 | 0.89 | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Bournemouth | 1.17 | 0.90 | Leeds | 0.96 | 0.94 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Brentford | 1.13 | 0.97 | Nottingham Forest | 1.10 | 0.95 | 43% | 26% | 32% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Coventry | 0.82 | 1.16 | Sunderland | 0.89 | 0.99 | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Hull | 0.66 | 1.28 | Ipswich | 0.84 | 1.14 | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Man City | 1.71 | 0.75 | Brighton | 1.26 | 0.84 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| 2026-10-31 17:30 | Tottenham | 1.11 | 0.91 | Crystal Palace | 1.04 | 1.03 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 | Aston Villa | 1.11 | 0.96 | Fulham | 1.06 | 0.92 | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| 2026-11-01 16:30 | Liverpool | 1.37 | 0.85 | Arsenal | 1.47 | 0.65 | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 | Newcastle | 1.11 | 1.00 | Everton | 0.97 | 0.99 | 46% | 26% | 29% |