What each side did, valued by the chances it made, beside the score. 5 matches of this round still to play.
Chelsea created more, 1.5 to 0.7 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Everton creates 1.06 and allows 1.21; Chelsea creates 1.49 and allows 1.23.
Liverpool created more, 1.8 to 1.0 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brentford creates 1.29 and allows 1.25; Liverpool creates 1.54 and allows 1.14.
Fulham created more, 1.9 to 0.2 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Fulham creates 1.10 and allows 1.25; Hull creates 0.81 and allows 1.63.
Man City created more, 3.5 to 1.3 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man City creates 1.83 and allows 1.01; Ipswich creates 0.97 and allows 1.43.
Aston Villa created more, 1.4 to 1.1 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Newcastle creates 1.30 and allows 1.31; Aston Villa creates 1.22 and allows 1.24.
Result and performance disagreed most: Man City 3–2 Ipswich. Man City created more, 3.5 to 1.3 expected goals, and won.
Result and performance disagreed most: Everton 0–2 Chelsea. Chelsea created more, 1.5 to 0.7 expected goals, and won.
Best attacking performance: Man City, 3.5 expected goals against Ipswich.
Best defensive performance: Fulham, 0.2 expected goals allowed against Hull.
Each team's projected points and chances before the round and now, from the rest of the season played out 10,000 times with the ratings as they stood each time. The teams whose projected points rose most come first. The whole projected finish.
| Team | Projected pts | Likely pos | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 60.4 → 64.0 | 4th → 3rd | 3% → 7% | 30% → 39% | 3% → 1% |
| Chelsea | 61.3 → 64.5 | 4th → 3rd | 5% → 5% | 35% → 41% | 6% → 1% |
| Sunderland | 39.3 → 41.5 | 20th → 17th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 1% | 32% → 27% |
| Crystal Palace | 47.7 → 49.6 | 15th → 11th | 1% → 0% | 7% → 8% | 15% → 11% |
| Arsenal | 78.1 → 79.4 | 1st → 1st | 30% → 32% | 83% → 86% | 0% → 0% |
| Fulham | 43.7 → 44.9 | 16th → 14th | 0% → 0% | 3% → 2% | 21% → 18% |
| Leeds | 53.1 → 54.3 | 10th → 9th | 0% → 1% | 12% → 13% | 6% → 6% |
| Aston Villa | 50.0 → 50.9 | 10th → 8th | 0% → 0% | 10% → 9% | 13% → 10% |
| Man City | 81.7 → 82.5 | 1st → 1st | 46% → 45% | 85% → 88% | 0% → 0% |
| Liverpool | 64.0 → 63.9 | 3rd → 3rd | 5% → 5% | 42% → 42% | 1% → 1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 48.2 → 48.0 | 13th → 11th | 0% → 0% | 8% → 7% | 15% → 16% |
| Everton | 49.3 → 49.0 | 15th → 10th | 1% → 1% | 8% → 5% | 11% → 10% |
| Coventry | 42.3 → 41.6 | 20th → 19th | 0% → 0% | 2% → 2% | 28% → 30% |
| Ipswich | 42.3 → 41.4 | 20th → 18th | 0% → 0% | 2% → 3% | 28% → 29% |
| Tottenham | 43.1 → 42.0 | 17th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 2% → 3% | 22% → 30% |
| Brentford | 56.3 → 55.2 | 5th → 6th | 3% → 1% | 21% → 16% | 6% → 5% |
| Newcastle | 50.4 → 48.4 | 7th → 16th | 1% → 1% | 12% → 7% | 15% → 14% |
| Hull | 33.1 → 30.6 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 0% | 57% → 64% |
| Bournemouth | 49.2 → 46.3 | 7th → 18th | 0% → 0% | 8% → 6% | 14% → 20% |
| Man Utd | 59.4 → 56.3 | 3rd → 7th | 3% → 2% | 29% → 22% | 4% → 8% |
Each team's rating now, in expected goals a match as the rating counts them, against an average opponent: what it creates and what it allows. Then the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two ratings, by the projection the projected finish is built from.
| Kickoff | Home | creates | allows | Away | creates | allows | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 19:00 | Ipswich | 0.97 | 1.46 | Nottingham Forest | 1.16 | 1.23 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| 2026-10-24 11:30 | Aston Villa | 1.22 | 1.23 | Man City | 1.84 | 1.02 | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 | Arsenal | 1.66 | 0.89 | Everton | 1.04 | 1.22 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 | Coventry | 0.96 | 1.39 | Fulham | 1.11 | 1.22 | 32% | 25% | 42% |
| 2026-10-24 16:30 | Chelsea | 1.50 | 1.21 | Tottenham | 1.18 | 1.30 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 | Crystal Palace | 1.18 | 1.31 | Newcastle | 1.29 | 1.31 | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 | Hull | 0.79 | 1.62 | Brentford | 1.28 | 1.26 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 | Liverpool | 1.55 | 1.14 | Brighton | 1.35 | 1.17 | 49% | 23% | 29% |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 | Man Utd | 1.48 | 1.18 | Bournemouth | 1.25 | 1.27 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| 2026-10-25 16:30 | Sunderland | 0.95 | 1.32 | Leeds | 1.10 | 1.22 | 34% | 26% | 40% |