What each side did, valued by the chances it made, beside the score. 4 matches of this round still to play.
Chelsea created more, 2.6 to 1.3 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Chelsea creates 1.32 and allows 0.90; Man Utd creates 1.36 and allows 0.90.
Bournemouth created more, 1.6 to 1.0 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Bournemouth creates 1.18 and allows 0.91; Leeds creates 0.97 and allows 0.95.
Brentford won with 0.6 expected goals to 1.3: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brentford creates 1.14 and allows 0.98; Nottingham Forest creates 1.11 and allows 0.95.
Coventry won with 1.1 expected goals to 1.6: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Coventry creates 0.82 and allows 1.16; Sunderland creates 0.90 and allows 0.99.
Ipswich created more, 1.4 to 0.6 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Hull creates 0.66 and allows 1.29; Ipswich creates 0.84 and allows 1.14.
Brighton won with 1.2 expected goals to 1.8: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man City creates 1.71 and allows 0.75; Brighton creates 1.27 and allows 0.85.
Result and performance disagreed most: Brentford 2–0 Nottingham Forest. Brentford won with 0.6 expected goals to 1.3: the result went against the performance.
Result and performance disagreed most: Coventry 3–1 Sunderland. Coventry won with 1.1 expected goals to 1.6: the result went against the performance.
Best attacking performance: Chelsea, 2.6 expected goals against Man Utd.
Best defensive performance: Ipswich, 0.6 expected goals allowed at Hull.
Each team's projected points and chances before the round and now, from the rest of the season played out 10,000 times with the ratings as they stood each time. The teams whose projected points rose most come first. The whole projected finish.
| Team | Projected pts | Likely pos | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 78.5 → 83.3 | 1st → 1st | 38% → 48% | 88% → 93% | 0% → 0% |
| Brighton | 63.5 → 67.2 | 4th → 3rd | 5% → 4% | 43% → 52% | 1% → 0% |
| Chelsea | 61.3 → 64.6 | 4th → 4th | 3% → 4% | 33% → 40% | 1% → 0% |
| Bournemouth | 54.1 → 55.7 | 7th → 6th | 1% → 1% | 14% → 14% | 5% → 3% |
| Liverpool | 64.9 → 66.4 | 3rd → 3rd | 6% → 4% | 45% → 48% | 0% → 1% |
| Man City | 79.4 → 80.7 | 1st → 1st | 43% → 37% | 87% → 90% | 0% → 0% |
| Brentford | 54.2 → 55.1 | 7th → 6th | 1% → 1% | 14% → 13% | 5% → 3% |
| Ipswich | 38.7 → 38.9 | 19th → 19th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 0% | 40% → 33% |
| Coventry | 35.3 → 35.4 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 0% | 53% → 49% |
| Nottingham Forest | 45.6 → 45.6 | 14th → 12th | 0% → 0% | 5% → 2% | 18% → 13% |
| Fulham | 45.3 → 45.1 | 16th → 15th | 0% → 0% | 3% → 2% | 18% → 16% |
| Leeds | 50.9 → 50.6 | 12th → 10th | 0% → 0% | 8% → 6% | 5% → 7% |
| Hull | 33.0 → 32.6 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 0% | 61% → 61% |
| Newcastle | 51.1 → 50.4 | 9th → 11th | 0% → 1% | 10% → 9% | 9% → 7% |
| Aston Villa | 52.3 → 51.4 | 8th → 11th | 0% → 0% | 11% → 10% | 8% → 7% |
| Tottenham | 52.1 → 51.1 | 8th → 10th | 0% → 0% | 11% → 9% | 7% → 6% |
| Man Utd | 53.6 → 52.2 | 6th → 7th | 1% → 0% | 18% → 8% | 7% → 4% |
| Everton | 46.8 → 44.8 | 14th → 13th | 0% → 0% | 4% → 2% | 15% → 17% |
| Crystal Palace | 44.4 → 39.7 | 17th → 18th | 0% → 0% | 3% → 0% | 20% → 32% |
| Sunderland | 41.9 → 37.1 | 18th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 1% → 0% | 27% → 41% |
Each team's rating now, in expected goals a match as the rating counts them, against an average opponent: what it creates and what it allows. Then the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two ratings, by the projection the projected finish is built from.
| Kickoff | Home | creates | allows | Away | creates | allows | Home win | Draw | Away win | Forecast: home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 20:00 | Everton | 0.98 | 0.99 | Coventry | 0.83 | 1.15 | 53% | 25% | 22% | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| 2026-11-07 12:30 | Leeds | 0.96 | 0.94 | Tottenham | 1.11 | 0.92 | 38% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| 2026-11-07 15:00 | Arsenal | 1.48 | 0.66 | Hull | 0.67 | 1.28 | 87% | 10% | 3% | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| 2026-11-07 15:00 | Fulham | 1.06 | 0.92 | Newcastle | 1.12 | 1.01 | 42% | 26% | 32% | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| 2026-11-07 17:30 | Nottingham Forest | 1.10 | 0.94 | Man City | 1.72 | 0.75 | 18% | 22% | 60% | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| 2026-11-08 14:00 | Brighton | 1.26 | 0.86 | Brentford | 1.13 | 0.97 | 49% | 25% | 26% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| 2026-11-08 14:00 | Crystal Palace | 1.05 | 1.03 | Liverpool | 1.39 | 0.86 | 23% | 23% | 54% | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| 2026-11-08 14:00 | Ipswich | 0.86 | 1.13 | Bournemouth | 1.18 | 0.90 | 25% | 25% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| 2026-11-08 14:00 | Sunderland | 0.90 | 1.00 | Chelsea | 1.33 | 0.89 | 26% | 25% | 49% | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| 2026-11-08 16:30 | Man Utd | 1.35 | 0.91 | Aston Villa | 1.12 | 0.96 | 55% | 23% | 22% | 51% | 24% | 25% |