What each side did, valued by the chances it made, beside the score. 6 matches of this round still to play.
Nottingham Forest created more, 2.5 to 0.6 expected goals, and drew.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Ipswich creates 0.99 and allows 1.46; Nottingham Forest creates 1.17 and allows 1.27.
Aston Villa won with 1.0 expected goals to 2.0: the result went against the performance.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.24 and allows 1.26; Man City creates 1.88 and allows 1.03.
Arsenal created more, 2.3 to 1.0 expected goals, and won.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Arsenal creates 1.66 and allows 0.91; Everton creates 1.08 and allows 1.26.
Fulham won a match that was close on chances, 0.6 to 0.7 expected goals.
Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Coventry creates 0.97 and allows 1.45; Fulham creates 1.14 and allows 1.24.
Result and performance disagreed most: Aston Villa 2–1 Man City. Aston Villa won with 1.0 expected goals to 2.0: the result went against the performance.
Result and performance disagreed most: Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest created more, 2.5 to 0.6 expected goals, and drew.
Best attacking performance: Nottingham Forest, 2.5 expected goals at Ipswich.
Best defensive performance: Coventry, 0.6 expected goals allowed against Fulham.
Each team's projected points and chances before the round and now, from the rest of the season played out 10,000 times with the ratings as they stood each time. The teams whose projected points rose most come first. The whole projected finish.
| Team | Projected pts | Likely pos | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 51.0 → 54.3 | 8th → 7th | 0% → 0% | 12% → 14% | 13% → 6% |
| Arsenal | 78.3 → 81.1 | 2nd → 1st | 25% → 36% | 83% → 90% | 0% → 0% |
| Chelsea | 60.6 → 63.3 | 4th → 3rd | 4% → 6% | 32% → 40% | 5% → 2% |
| Fulham | 44.8 → 47.4 | 15th → 13th | 0% → 0% | 4% → 5% | 20% → 15% |
| Sunderland | 38.7 → 40.3 | 19th → 19th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 2% | 34% → 31% |
| Bournemouth | 49.8 → 50.8 | 10th → 9th | 1% → 1% | 8% → 9% | 10% → 10% |
| Leeds | 50.8 → 51.7 | 11th → 9th | 0% → 1% | 8% → 11% | 9% → 9% |
| Crystal Palace | 45.9 → 46.7 | 18th → 17th | 0% → 1% | 4% → 6% | 18% → 19% |
| Nottingham Forest | 45.5 → 45.6 | 19th → 14th | 0% → 0% | 6% → 3% | 22% → 16% |
| Hull | 32.9 → 32.9 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 0% → 0% | 54% → 55% |
| Brighton | 65.5 → 65.1 | 3rd → 3rd | 6% → 4% | 44% → 44% | 1% → 1% |
| Man Utd | 55.9 → 55.3 | 5th → 6th | 2% → 1% | 20% → 18% | 6% → 6% |
| Brentford | 54.7 → 53.9 | 6th → 6th | 1% → 0% | 14% → 14% | 5% → 7% |
| Man City | 84.3 → 83.1 | 1st → 1st | 53% → 47% | 91% → 89% | 0% → 0% |
| Newcastle | 49.9 → 48.5 | 11th → 13th | 0% → 0% | 8% → 8% | 12% → 13% |
| Tottenham | 47.9 → 46.3 | 10th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 4% → 6% | 13% → 20% |
| Coventry | 40.1 → 38.1 | 20th → 20th | 0% → 0% | 2% → 1% | 34% → 39% |
| Ipswich | 42.0 → 39.9 | 20th → 19th | 0% → 0% | 3% → 1% | 29% → 33% |
| Everton | 48.0 → 45.8 | 16th → 16th | 1% → 0% | 8% → 3% | 14% → 16% |
| Liverpool | 67.0 → 63.3 | 3rd → 3rd | 6% → 3% | 48% → 38% | 1% → 1% |
Each team's rating now, in expected goals a match as the rating counts them, against an average opponent: what it creates and what it allows. Then the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two ratings, by the projection the projected finish is built from.
| Kickoff | Home | creates | allows | Away | creates | allows | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 12:30 | Chelsea | 1.53 | 1.24 | Man Utd | 1.49 | 1.22 | 44% | 23% | 34% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Bournemouth | 1.31 | 1.27 | Leeds | 1.11 | 1.24 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Brentford | 1.29 | 1.29 | Nottingham Forest | 1.17 | 1.26 | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Coventry | 0.96 | 1.43 | Sunderland | 0.96 | 1.38 | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Hull | 0.81 | 1.66 | Ipswich | 0.98 | 1.46 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 | Man City | 1.87 | 1.03 | Brighton | 1.41 | 1.16 | 59% | 20% | 20% |
| 2026-10-31 17:30 | Tottenham | 1.24 | 1.32 | Crystal Palace | 1.17 | 1.36 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 | Aston Villa | 1.24 | 1.26 | Fulham | 1.13 | 1.22 | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| 2026-11-01 16:30 | Liverpool | 1.59 | 1.17 | Arsenal | 1.67 | 0.91 | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 | Newcastle | 1.32 | 1.33 | Everton | 1.06 | 1.27 | 47% | 24% | 29% |